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Juta Kawalerowicz and Michael Biggs, University of Oxford
(Project no. 0301728, previously 30172)
The aim of this project is to study dynamics of ethnic change in historic perspective. In the light of the last Census findings there has been a renewed interest in residential dynamics. In particular some commentators (Goodhart 2012) expressing concern over alleged white flight, a tendency of white British to out-migrate from areas with high or increasing proportion of ethnic minority residents. This claim has been studies for most recent migrants by Kaufman and Harris who used LS census data to study geographic mobility of white British between 2001 and 2011. The authors concluded that the pattern is more akin of that of white avoidance[1] than white flight.
How was geographic mobility related to ethnic characteristics prior to 2001? We propose to extend the study by including earlier periods (from 1971 Census until 1991 Census) which may reveal a pattern more akin to that of a white flight. As outlined by economic prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) people are more sensitive to direction and rate of change than absolute levels. Hence, it is crucial to include earlier decades which captured large scale changes in ethnic make-up of Britain.
[1] a pattern where white British leave diverse areas due to factors other than ethnic prejudice, for instance white British display a stronger life cycle mobility or have a stronger preference for countryside.