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Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care

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Social class mortality forecasts

David Blake, The Pensions Institute, Kevin Dowd, University of Nottingham and Andrew Cairns, Heriot-Watt University

(Project no. 30074)

To build a stochastic forecasting model of mortality rates of males and females in different social classes and to investigate differential trends in social class mortality.

The applicants have already built a stochastic forecasting model of mortality rates of males from the national population (A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73, 2006, 687-718) and now wish examine a social class breakdown of mortality, especially at higher ages