Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care


Understanding recent fertility trends in the UK & improving methodologies for fertility forecasting

Hill Kulu, University of St Andrews, Ann Berrington and Bernice Kuang, University of Southampton, Sindhu Vasireddy, Mahindra University and Lee Williamson, University of Edinburgh

(Project no. 2000911)

This project will examine the significant fluctuations in fertility levels in the UK in the last two decades, investigate their causes, and develop improved methodologies for fertility forecasting. The last two decades have witnessed dramatic changes in fertility levels, which were not predicted by demographers or government statisticians.These changes when translated into numbers of births, have had important implications, for example in the provision of health services, childcare, and school places. Elucidating the past two decades’ trends will help to better predict future patterns and inform future planning and projection for such social needs. Moreover, developed projection methodologies could be applied to project fertility in other industrialised countries.