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Publications

Our recent research articles, scientific posters, books, field guides, working papers and guidelines.

 

Research Articles

Our recent published research articles...

 Volcanological applications of unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS): Developments, strategies, and future challenges. Volcanica, 3:1, 67-114.
 

Smart DJ (2020). Short report: A damaging downslope wind storm in western Wales on 1-2 March 2018. Weather, doi 10.1002/wea.3615.

Smart DJ, Browning KA (2020). An under-forecast snowstorm associated with  but deep tropopause depression. Weather, doi 10.1002/wea.3646.

Spatial and temporal variations in SO2 and PM2.5 levels around Kilauea volcano, Hawai during 2007-2018. Front Earth Sci, 8:36, doi 10.3389/feart.2020.00036.
 

Battaglia J, Hidalgo S, Bernard B, Steele AL, et al. (2019). Autopsy of an eruptive phase of Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) through coupling of seismo-acoustic and SO2 recordings with ash characteristics. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 511, 223-232, doi 10.1016/j.epsl.2019.01.042.

Variation of the BrO/SO2 molar ratio in the plume of Tungurahua volcano between 2007 and 2017 and its relationship to volcanic activity. Front Earth Sci, 7:132, doi 10.3389/feart.2019.00132.

Diverse eruptive activity revealed by acoustic and electromagnetic observations of the 14 July 2013 intense Vulcanian eruption of Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. Geophys Res Lett, 45, doi 10.1002/2017GL076419.

The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro that never happened: Has the source of one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century been misattributed? J Appl Volcanol, 7:8, doi 10.1186/s13617-018-0078-9. 

Forecasting volcanic eruptions: Beyond the failure forecast method. Front Earth Sci, 6:133, doi 10.3389/feart.2018.00133.
 

Browning KA, Smart DJ (2018). Invigoration of convection by an overrunning diabatically modified cloud-top layer. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 144, 142-155, doi 10.1002/qj.3190. 

 Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy. Nat Commun, 8:15312, doi 10.1038/ncomms15312.

Miso-vortices along an oceanic cold front - 27 November 2015. Weather, 72, 73-73, doi 10.1002/wea.2828.

 Deformation regime and long-term precursors to eruption at large calderas: Rabaul, Papua New Guinea. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 438, doi 10.1016j.epsl.2016.01.003.

A train of cloud heads associated with multiple cold fronts. Weather, 71, 267-268, doi 10.1002/wea.2809.

The role of evaporating showers in the transfer of sting-jet momentum to the surface. Q R J Meteorol Soc, 141, 2956-2971, doi 10.1002/qj.2581.
 

Clark M, Smart DJ (2015). Supercell and non-supercell tornadoes in the United Kingdom and Ireland. In: Doe RK (Ed) Extreme weather: Forty years of the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation. Wiley-Blackwell, 31-60, ISBN: 978-1-118-94995-5.

Kirk P, Prosser T, Smart DJ (2015). Tornadoes in the United Kingdom and Ireland - frequency and spatial distribution. In: Doe RK (Ed) Extreme weather: Forty years of the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation. Wiley-Blackwell, 61-76, ISBN: 978-1-118-94995-5.

Attribution of strong winds to a cold conveyor belt and sting jet. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 140, 595-610, doi 10.1002/qj.2162.

Trends in the aggregated rate of pre-eruptive volcano-tectonic seismicity at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. Bull Volcanol, 75, doi 10.1007/s00445-012-0677-y.

Precursory deformation and fracture before brittle rock failure and potential application to volcanic unrest. J Geophys Res, doi 10.1029/2011JB008703.

A damaging microburst and tornado near York on 3 August 2011. Weather, 67, 218-223, doi 10.1002/wea.1925.

Precursors to dyke-fed eruptions at basaltic volcanoes: Insights from patterns of volcano-tectonic seismicity at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. Bull Volcanol, 74, 325-339, doi 10.1007/s00445-011-0519-3.

Forecasting eruptions after long repose intervals from accelerating rates of rock fracture: The June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines. J Volcanol Geotherm Res, 191, 129-136.

Intrusion and deformation at Campi Flegrei, southern Italy: Sills, dikes, and regional extension. J Geophys Res, 115, doi 10.1029/2009JB006913.

Morphology and evolution of cold-frontal misocyclones. Q.J.R Meteorol Soc, 135, 381-393, doi 10.1002/qj.399.

Fracturing of volcanic systems: Experimental insights into pre-eruptive conditions. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 280, 211-219, doi 10.1016/j.epsl.2009.01.032.

Ground deformation at Campi Flegrei, Italy: Implications for hazard assessment. In, Troise C, De Natale G, Kilburn CRJ (eds) Mechanisms of activity and unrest at large calderas. Geol Soc Spec Pub 269, 141-157.

Maximum warning times for imminent volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett, 32, doi 10.1029/2005GL024184.

Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting eruptions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res, 125, 271-289.

Slow rock fracture as eruption precursor at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. Geophys Res Lett, 25, 3665-3668.

Forecasting volcanic events: Some contemporary issues. Geol Rundsch, 86, 439-445.
Scientific Posters

To showcase our research, members of the Hazard Centre have presented scientific posters at numerous conferences around the world. Here are some examples...

Affordable technology for monitoring degassing volcanoes. Poster presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly Conference, 2018.

A crustal model for coupling the magmatic and hydrothermal system and the control on ground movements at Campi Flegrei. Poster presented at the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) Conference, 2017.

Unrest and eruption at large calderas: Campi Flegrei, southern Italy. Poster presented at the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) Conference, 2017.

Affordable technology for monitoring remote volcanoes. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2016.

Forecasting volcanic eruptions: The narrow margin between eruption and intrusion at Cotopaxi, Ecuador. Poster presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly Conference, 2016.

The importance of data sensitivity and effective hazard communication: Hazard mapping of Campi Flegrei, Italy. Poster presented at the Volcano and Magmatic Studies Group (VMSG) Conference, 2015.

Visualising hazard and vulnerability for volcanic risk reduction. Poster presented at the Volcano and Magmatic Studies Group (VMSG) Conference, 2015.

Anticipating disasters using community knowledge: A case study of a typhoon-triggered lahars disaster at Mayon volcano, Philippines. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2014.

Integrating natural science into humanitarian and development planning: NGO guidelines. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2014.

Unrest at large calderas: The control of sill emplacement. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2014.

Decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises: The 2011 eruption of El Hierro, Canary Islands. Poster presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly Conference, 2014.

Volcano-tectonic seismicity before flank eruptions at Mt Etna. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2014.

The rupture of magma chambers before eruptions. Poster presented at the Volcano and Magmatic Studies Group (VMSG) Conference, 2014.

Precursors to eruptions at volcanoes in extensional stress fields: An experimental approach. Poster presented at the Volcano and Magmatic Studies Group (VMSG) Conference, 2013.

Mapping the hazard from lava flows: The perspective of vulnerable communities. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2012.

Precursors to eruptions at large calderas: Rabaul caldera, Papua New Guinea. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2012.

Seismic precursors to eruptions at volcanoes in extensional stress fields. Poster presented at the Cities on Volcanoes (COV) Conference, 2012.
Books

Recent book publications from the Hazard Centre...

Fearnley C, Wilkinson E, Tillyard CJ, Edwards S (2013). Natural hazards and disaster risk reduction: Putting research into practice. Routledge, 122 pp.

Field Guides

Members of the Hazard Centre have been involved in writing field guides for the Classic Geology in Europe series, which can be found at Dunedin Academic Press.

Kilburn and McGuire. Italian Volcanoes
Kilburn CRJ, McGuire WJ (2001). Italian Volcanoes. Dunedin Academic Press, 174 pp.

Carracedo and Day. Canary Islands
Carracedo JC, Day S (2002). Canary Islands. Dunedin Academic Press, 304 pp.

Edwards et al. The Geology of Cyprus
Edwards S, et al. (2010). Cyprus. Dunedin Academic Press, 288 pp.
Working Papers

The following is a list of working papers that form part of the UCL Hazard Centre Disaster Studies and Management Working Papers series.

Promoting nature-based solutions: Guideline for integrating ecosystem-based adaptation into municipal planning and governance. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 32.

Integrating climate change adaptation into municipal planning and governance. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 31.

The 'Great Fire' of Valparaiso 2014: Social class differences and people's vulnerability. A case study of wildland-urban fire. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 30.

Strategic environmental impact assessments and disasters: Building back smarter. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 29.

What controls development? NGOs, accountability and power in rural Malawi. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 28.

The Haiti earthquake: A disaster set apart from others? Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 27.

"Staying Safe" - A conceptual framework for school safety. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 26.

Emergency planning in the UK: The players, the partnerships and the pressures. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 25.

Community development as an approach to reducing risks among flashflood-affected families in Albay, Philippines. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 24.

Challenging dominant ideology and practice in disaster management: Partnership dynamics in community based disaster risk reduction in a Zimbabwean context. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 23.

Coping strategies and manageability: How participatory geographical information systems can transform local knowledge into better policies for disaster risk management. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 22.

Building a 'culture of prevention': Challenges to institutionalising disaster risk reduction in local development in Mexico. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 21.

The social life of community-based disaster risk reduction: Origins, politics and framing. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 20.

Earthquake relief: Shifting attention?. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 19.

Identifying partnership needs and opportunities. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 18.

Damage, needs or rights? - Defining what is required after disaster. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 17.

Disaster early warning systems: People, politics and economics. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 16.

Technology, post-disaster housing reconstruction and livelihood security. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 15.

Operational framework for integrating risk reduction - For organisations working in settlement development planning. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 14.

Mainstreaming participatory vulnerability analysis in ActionAid International. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 13.

Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction: A tool for development organisations. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 12.

Social learning and adaptation to climate change. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 11.

Plague and bio-terrorism. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 10.

The right to safety: Some conceptual and practical issues. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 9.

An operational framework for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 8.

Acute food insecurity in mega-cities: Issues and assistance options. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 7.

Indigenous early warning indicators of cyclones: Potential application in coastal Bangladesh. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 6.

From awareness to action: Tackling HIV/AIDS through radio and television drama. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 5.

 'Vulnerability': A matter of perception. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 4.

Rapid environmental impact assessment: A framework for best practice in emergency response. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 3.

Sustainable livelihoods and vulnerability to disasters. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 2.

Physician, heal thyself? The politics of disaster mitigation. Disaster Studies and Management Working Paper 1.
Guidelines

Some of the work undertaken at the Hazard Centre has led to the publication of guidelines aimed at reducing social vulnerabilty and increasing community resilience...

Integrating science into humanitarian and development planning and practice to enhance community resilience. Guidelines for NGO practitioners. Full text.

Integrating science into humanitarian and development planning and practice to enhance community resilience. Guidelines for NGO practitioners. Executive summary.

UCL Hazard Centre:

Hazard and Risk: Our operational programmes aimed at enhancing disaster risk reduction, response and relief.

History: A brief history of the centre.

Publications: Examples of our research articles, posters, books, field guides, and more...

We are partnered with the UCL Department of Earth Sciences.

Contact us:
Director: Christopher Kilburn
Email: c.kilburn@ucl.ac.uk
Tel: +44 (0) 20 3108 6325 (56325)

Deputy Director: Stephen Edwards    
Email: s.edwards@ucl.ac.uk
Tel: +44 (0) 20 3108 6326 (56326)