Global Events Forecast - May 2019

UK local elections 

On 2 May, UK local elections will take place with almost 9,000 council seats up for grabs in England and Northern Ireland. The elections come at a time of much uncertainty in British politics and Theresa May’s Conservative party is widely expected to suffer serious losses in the face of mounting anger over the government’s handling of Brexit.  

UK Committee on Climate Change to publish recommendations 

The Committee on Climate Change, the UK’s chief advisory body on climate change, is due to publish a report on 2 May that will provide new recommendations on the UK’s long-term climate change targets in light of the Paris Agreement and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C.

Northern Ireland power-sharing talks 

The British and Irish governments will start a new round of talks on 7 May with the aim of restoring the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland has been without a government for a record-breaking two years since a coalition led by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin collapsed in January 2017 over a green energy scandal.

UK to be reviewed by the Committee against Torture

On 7 and 8 May, the UN Committee against Torture is due to review the UK’s progress in implementing the UN Convention against Torture. A major focus of the review is likely to be the crisis in UK prisons. Other countries under review during the current Committee session include Benin, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Germany, Mexico and South Africa.

General elections in South Africa

General elections in South Africans are scheduled for 8 May. While almost 50 parties will be contesting the elections, the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power for the past 25 years, will almost certainly win a majority. Still, the elections are seen as a crucial referendum on the ANC which has been losing popular support in recent years over internal divisions, allegations of corruption and failure to deliver on promises to tackle poverty and inequality. 

8 May

General elections in Panama

Corruption, crime and a slowing economy will be primary concerns for voters at the upcoming general elections in Panama. The elections are expected to result in a defeat for the ruling Panameñista Party whose candidate José Blandón is currently polling third, behind Laurentino Cortizo of the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and Rómulo Roux of the Democratic Change (CD) party. Incumbent President Juan Carlos Varela is ineligible to run a second consecutive term due to constitutional constraints. 

Future of Europe summit 

On 9 May, European leaders will gather in Sibiu, Romania, to discuss the ‘Future of Europe’. The event is part of an ongoing EU process, launched in 2017, to build a ‘united, stronger and more democratic Union’ in an increasingly multipolar and uncertain world.

Presidential elections in Lithuania 

Lithuania will hold the first round of presidential elections on 12 May. The three front-runners include economist and center-right candidate Gitanas Nausėda, Ingrida Šimonytė of the Christian Democratic Party, and current Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis. Incumbent president Dalia Grybauskaitė cannot run for a third term. If none of the candidates wins an outright majority, a runoff will take place on 26 May.

General elections in the Philippines  

On 13 May, Filipinos will casts their votes in mid-term general elections. President Rodrigo Duterte, who has faced international condemnation for his crackdown on human rights and ruthless ‘war on drugs’, continues to enjoy popularity among a majority of voters and it is expected that Duterte loyalists will take control of the Senate in the election.

10th anniversary of the EU’s Eastern Partnership programme 

EU foreign ministers will meet with their counterparts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine on 13 and 14 May to mark the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership and discuss an extension of the programme beyond 2020. The Eastern Partnership encourages the six former Soviet republics to undertake democratic reforms in return for deeper economic and political relations with the EU. It has provoked concerns in Russia which believes the initiative is in conflict with its own economic and geopolitical interests in the post-Soviet space.

Federal elections in Australia    

Australians will vote in general elections on 18 May. The conservative government under Prime Minister Scott Morrison is seeking another term in office but polls indicate a close race with Labor candidate Bill Shorten. Issues that are expected to be most contested include the economy, rising costs of living and climate change.

72nd World Health Assembly

The World Health Assembly (WHA), the supreme decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO), will hold its 72nd session in Geneva from 20-28 May to discuss a range of key global health issues and strategic priorities for the WHO. As in previous years, it is expected that Taiwan will not be invited to attend the meeting. From 2009 to 2016, Taiwan enjoyed observer status at the WHA but it has since been excluded, following political pressure from China. 

General elections in Malawi 

General elections will be held in Malawi on 21 May. Incumbent president Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is running for re-election but faces strong challengers, including lead opposition candidate Lazarus Chakwera and Vice President Saulos Chilima, who launched his own political party last year. Since the transition to multiparty democracy in 1994, elections in Malawi have been by and large lawful and peaceful, however, the country is facing serious political, social and economic problems and high-profile cases of corruption and nepotism have further undermined trust in the political system.

European Parliament elections   

European elections will take place between 23 and 26 May. It is now likely that the UK will participate in the elections as the Brexit deadline has been extended until October. The vote could see nationalist and anti-European political parties making major gains and forming a powerful bloc in the European Parliament.

Federal elections in Belgium

Federal elections will take place in Belgium on 26 May, coinciding with the European parliament elections. Belgium is currently ruled by a minority caretaker government, after a four-party coalition of liberals, conservatives and nationalists split over a dispute over the signing of the UN Global Compact for Migration in December last year. Belgium has a complicated political set-up and the divide between the Dutch-speaking North (Flanders) and the French-speaking South (Wallonia) has often resulted in political gridlock and long coalition negotiations.

Trump visit to Japan  

US president Donald Trump will travel to Japan from 25-28 May for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on North Korea and trade. Tokyo and Washington kicked off negotiations for a bilateral trade deal last month. Trump will also be the first foreign leader to meet with Japan’s new Emperor Naruhito who formally ascended the throne on 1 May, following the abdication of his father Emperor Akihito.