Global Events Forecast - March 2019

Parliamentary elections in Estonia 

Estonia's parliamentary elections are scheduled for 3 March 2019. Prime Minister Jüri Ratas' Centre Party is leading in the polls, and Ratas is expected to have good chances of forming the new cabinet. The far-right party Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE) is polled to win around 20% of the vote, which could make it the country's third political force. Estonia is an online voting pioneer and was the first in the world to use online balloting for a national election in 2005.

World Ocean Summit

The sixth World Ocean Summit is being held from 5-7 March 2019 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, under the theme ‘building bridges’. The meeting will bring together political, business and environmental leaders to discuss the role of governance, finance, technology and innovation in addressing the problems facing the world’s oceans. 

UN human rights chief to present annual report

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, will present her annual report to the UN Human Rights Council on 6 March. Made up of 47 elected UN member states, the Human Rights Council is the main inter-governmental UN body responsible for protecting and promoting human rights around the globe. Its 40th regular session is taking place from 25 February to 22 March in Geneva. 

Manafort sentencing hearings in Virginia and Washington

Paul Manafort, the former chairman of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, is scheduled to be sentenced by the federal court in Virginia on 7 March for bank and tax fraud. A week later, on 13 March, he will be sentenced by another federal judge in Washington DC, where he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and lying to investigators. Manafort is the first former Trump campaign official to be found guilty as part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 US election. 

Legislative elections in Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau will hold long-delayed legislative elections on 10 March. The elections are intended to break the political stalemate the West African country has found itself in since President Jose Mario Vaz sacked his prime minister in 2015. Guinea-Bissau is one of the world’s poorest countries and a major hub for drug trafficking in Africa.

12, 13 and 14 March

UK parliament votes on Brexit

Theresa May has announced that she will hold a ‘meaningful vote’ on her Brexit deal - including any amendments she has agreed with the EU - by 12 March. If she loses that vote, the government will table a motion on the following day, asking MPs if they approve leaving the EU with no deal. If MPs reject a no deal Brexit, they will get a vote on 14 March on whether they support a delay of the EU withdrawal beyond 29 March. May reiterated that any extension to article 50 would not be longer than three months and “would almost certainly have to be a one-off”. 

Syria donor conference 

The EU and the UN will co-chair the third conference on 'Supporting the future of Syria and the region', taking place in Brussels from 12 to 14 March 2019. It will be key to ensure continued funding for humanitarian operations in Syria and neighbouring refugee-hosting countries. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), an estimated 11.7 million people will require life-saving humanitarian assistance across the country this year. 

UK Spring Statement  

On 13 March 2019, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, will deliver his Spring Statement, the final major fiscal event before the UK is scheduled to formally leave the EU. Given that last month saw a record surplus in public finances, Hammond faces increased pressures to deliver on his promise to boost public spending after nine years of austerity. However, the chancellor also faces risks from a struggling economy and a highly uncertain Brexit situation. 

Global youth climate strike action  

A global, coordinated strike by school students over climate change will take place on 15 March. Over the past months, thousands of students across the world have taken part in strike action to protest governments’ inaction in the face of global warming. The protests have been inspired by climate activist Greta Thunberg, a 16-year-old schoolgirl from Sweden, who started the movement by skipping school every Friday since August 2018.

Presidential elections in Slovakia    

Presidential elections will be held in Slovakia on 16 March, with the runoff scheduled for 30 March. Lawyer Zuzana Čaputová who is running for the left-wing party Progressive Slovakia is currently leading in the polls, closely followed by social democrat Maroš Šefčovič, Vice-President of the European Commission.

Loya Jirga to discuss Afghanistan peace process

Afghanistan is reportedly planning to hold a grand council of tribal elders and political leaders – known as a loya Jirga – on 17 March to debate the future of the peace process. This could potentially provide a venue for the Taliban to enter into a dialogue with wider Afghan society. Peace talks have gained momentum in recent months after the US decided to engage with the Taliban, in an effort to end the 17-year war in Afghanistan. 

Renewed push to expel Viktor Orbán from European parliament bloc 

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán could be facing renewed attempts to expel him from the centre-right European People’s party (EPP), a large grouping of Christian democrat parties in the EU which currently holds the largest number of seats in the European parliament. Orbán and his aggressive anti-EU rhetoric will be on the agenda of the EPP political assembly on 20 March. However, not everyone in the EPP supports an exclusion of Orbán and his Fidesz party, given that the EPP is already expected to lose seats in the upcoming European elections. 

European Council meeting in Brussels 

EU leaders will gather for their annual spring summit in Brussels from 21 to 22 March. With barely a week to go until the official Brexit date, they could either sign off on last-minute changes to the withdrawal agreement – or agree to extend Article 50, if this is requested by the UK.

March for a People's Vote

Another ‘Put It To The People’ march is set to take place in London on 23 March, just six days before the UK is supposed to leave the European Union. The last march in October 2018 was joined by an estimated 670,000 protesters. Their key demand is that any Brexit deal should be put to a public vote for final approval.  

General election in Thailand  

On 24 March, Thailand is set to hold its first election since the 2014 military coup. The run up to the election has seen some dramatic events, including the nomination and immediate disqualification of Princess Ubolratana Mahidol, elder sister of the king, and the possible dissolution of the Thai Raksa Chart party for which she had intended to run. In addition, the Thai police is seeking the prosecution of Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the left-wing Future Forward party which caters particularly to younger voters. These developments are likely to play into the hands of the newly formed pro-military party, Palang Pracharat.

General Assembly High-Level Meeting on Climate Protection for All

On 28 March, the UN General Assembly will convene a High-Level Meeting on ‘Climate Protection for All’. The meeting is intended to provide a bridge between last year’s climate summit in Katowice (COP24), the review of Sustainable Development Goal 13 at the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (scheduled for July 2019), and the UN 2019 Climate Summit (scheduled for September 2019). 

Official Brexit date 

The UK is still officially scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March. However, it has become increasingly likely that an extension to Article 50 will be requested. Even if Theresa May wins a meaningful vote on her Brexit deal by 12 March (see above), the UK might ask for a short extension to allow time to ratify the deal in law. A delay beyond the end of June, however, might mean that the UK has to take part in the European parliament elections in May. 

Presidential elections in Ukraine 

Presidential elections will be held in Ukraine on 31 March. Recent polls place comedian and political newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy in first place, followed by sitting president Petro Poroshenko and opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. Tymoshenko announced this week that she has initiated impeachment proceedings against Poroshenko, following an investigation that links the president to a corruption scandal involving Russia. If no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote in the first round, which is likely, the top two candidates will face each other in a run-off on 21 April. 

Mueller investigation to be concluded

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is widely expected to deliver a confidential report to the attorney general within the next few weeks, summarising the findings of his investigation of Russia’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 US presidential election. The end of the investigation could spark a legal battle between Congress and the Justice Department over what information from the report will be released to Congress and the public. According to senior lawmaker Adam Schiff, the Democrats will subpoena the report if it is not released to Congress and, if necessary, sue the government and call on Mueller to testify to Congress.

Xi and Trump to meet in Florida 

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet for a summit at Trump's Mar-a-Lago golf club in Palm Beach, Florida, in late March to seek a definitive end to the long-running trade dispute between the world’s largest economies. Following several rounds of bilateral trade talks, Trump announced that substantial progress has been made and that the US will delay a menu of additional tariffs on Chinese goods that were scheduled to begin on 1 March.