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Referendum polling in the UK has historically overstated support for change

Tuesday, 31 May 2016

The differing outcomes produced by online and telephone polling during the EU referendum have led to a debate about the merits of each method. But perhaps neither is a good indicator of the final outcome. Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick suggest that there is often a trend towards the status quo during referendum campaigns in the UK, and that even polls in the […]

The government must fundamentally reassess its approach to devolution to safeguard the integrity of the Union

Monday, 30 May 2016

Last week the House of Lords Constitution Committee published a major report on ‘The Union and devolution’. Mark Elliott and Stephen Tierney summarise the report, in which it is suggested that the government should fundamentally reassess its approach to devolution and that, in future, any new proposals for devolution ‘should be considered within an appropriate framework of constitutional principles that […]

Post-Brexit trade negotiations would pose significant practical challenges for Whitehall

Friday, 27 May 2016

The implications of Brexit for the UK’s trade arrangements, a subject on which Leave and Remain campaigners have sharply disagreed, were addressed in the first two seminars of a series on Brexit hosted by the Constitution Unit and the UCL European Institute. Drawing on the comments of the seminar speakers, Oliver Patel discusses the impact that post-Brexit trade negotiations […]

EU referendum forecast update: 79 per cent chance of Remain winning

Wednesday, 25 May 2016

Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have developed a method for forecasting the outcome of the EU referendum based on current vote intention polling and analysis of opinion polling from previous referendums in the UK and across Europe. Since the last update two weeks ago the probability of a Remain win has increased from 72 per cent […]

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