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Brexit consequentials: why the UK must involve the devolved governments in the process of leaving the EU

Saturday, 25 June 2016

The shockwaves from Thursday’s earthquake continue to reverberate through the political landscape. The Prime Minister has been toppled, and the existing differences between the UK’s four nations threaten to widen into serious rifts. In particular, the place of Scotland in the UK – supposedly settled for a generation two years ago – is again in […]

Will Brexit lead to the break up of the UK?

Friday, 24 June 2016

The differing referendum results in the UK’s component parts have led to immediate speculation about a second independence referendum in Scotland and a border poll in Northern Ireland. Robert Hazell assesses the situation. Scotland (by 62–38) and Northern Ireland (by 56–44) voted to remain in the EU, but were outvoted by England and Wales. This […]

The road to Brexit: 16 things you need to know about the process of leaving the EU

Friday, 24 June 2016

The UK has voted to leave the European Union. So what happens next? How, in practical terms, will Brexit actually happen? Alan Renwick explored some key elements of the withdrawal process before the referendum campaign began. Here, he gives a point-by-point overview of what the road to Brexit will look like. This is an updated version of […]

Final EU referendum forecast: Remain predicted to win 52-48

Thursday, 23 June 2016

Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have developed a method for forecasting the outcome of the EU referendum based on current vote intention polling and analysis of opinion polling from previous referendums in the UK and across Europe. Their final forecast, taking account of polls published up to yesterday evening, suggests that Remain will win 52-48. However, […]

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