|Phone (external)||020 7679 1869|
|Themes||Stochastic Modelling of Complex Systems|
Paul has worked at University College London since 2005. He was awarded a PhD in Statistics from University College London in 1996 for a thesis on the spatial-temporal modelling of rainfall processes and extended this work as a NERC postdoctoral research fellow at University College London and Imperial College. He was a Departmental Lecturer in the Department of Statistics at the University of Oxford from 1999 to 2005.
Development and application of stochastic models for spatial-temporal rainfall processes; inference for complex stochastic processes; modelling of extreme values; applications in hydrology and climatology.
- Northrop, P. J., Attalides, N. and Jonathan, P. (2016) Cross-validatory extreme value threshold selection and uncertainty with application to ocean storm severity. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66(1), 93-120, doi: 10.1111/rssc.12159
- Northrop, P. J., Jonathan, P. and Randell, D. (2016) Threshold Modeling of Nonstationary Extremes. In D. K. Dey and J. Yan (Eds.) Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications, Chapman and Hall / CRC, 87-108.
- Northrop, P. J. and Attalides, N. (2016) Posterior propriety in Bayesian extreme value analyses using reference priors. Statistica Sinica, 26(2), 721-743, doi: 10.5705/ss.2014.034.
- Northrop, P. J. (2015) An efficient semiparametric maxima estimator of the extremal index. Extremes, 18(4), 585-603, doi: 10.1007/s10687-015-0221-5. Free-to-read online!
- Kaczmarska, J. M., Isham, V. S. and Northrop, P. J. (2015) Local generalised method of moments: an application to point process-based rainfall models. Environmetrics, 26(4), 312--325, doi: 10.1002/env.2338.
- Northrop, P. J. and Coleman, C. L. (2014) Improved threshold diagnostic plots for extreme value analyses. Extremes, 17(2), 289--303, doi: 10.1007/s10687-014-0183-z. Free-to-read online!
- Northrop, P. J. and Chandler, R. E. (2014) Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Journal of Climate, 27(23), 8793--8808, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00265.1.
- Northrop, P. J. and Jonathan, P. (2011) Threshold modelling of spatially-dependent non-stationary extremes with application to hurricane-induced wave heights. Environmetrics (with discussion). Environmetrics, 22(7), 799-816, doi: 10.1002/env.1106.
- Maul, P., Robinson, P. C. and Northrop, P. J. (2011) Statistical Modelling of Graphite Brick Cracking in Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactors. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), 60(3), 1-15, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2010.00745.x.