Are “Pronatalist” Countries Pronatalist in the Same Way?

After a long period of rapid growth, the global population is expected to start shrinking in the second half of the 21^st century. Many developed countries already exhibit fertility rates lower than the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. In Eastern Europe, depopulation is further exacerbated by emigration: eight of the ten fastest-shrinking countries in the world are East European. Depopulation is causing concerns about the sustainability of pension and health systems in the short to medium term and the viability of countries and nations in the long term, leading policymakers to undertake various pronatalist interventions. 

Against this backdrop, this research proposes the term “extrinsic pronatalism” in reference to child benefits that sometimes exceed the financial cost of raising children and conflict with the distribution of said costs throughout childhood and between birth orders. By drawing attention to a third distinct type of pronatalist policies, it seeks to challenge their dichotomous classification into liberal and illiberal policies that either facilitate or impose parenthood.  

Empirically, it conducts a Fuzzy Set Ideal Type Analysis (FSITA) of child benefits for four birth orders in low-income and middle-income model households in ten European countries with a self-declared pronatalist orientation. It finds evidence of “high extrinsicness” in four of them (Belarus, Hungary, Serbia, and Portugal) and “moderate extrinsicness” in another four. These findings pose several implications for future trends in pronatalist policy, child spending, and the income effects of parenthood. 

Image credit: Guillaume de Germain on Unsplash