UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction


Special Seminar on Probabilistic Catastrophe Loss Models, 13-Oct-2014

9 September 2014

"Probabilistic catastrophe loss models: how are they built and how can they help in disaster risk reduction?" by Dr Robert Muir-Wood, RMS.

Eventbrite - UCL IRDR Special Seminar on Probabilistic Catastrophe Loss Models

Date and Time: Monday 13th October, 6-7pm seminar, 7-8pm reception

Location: Roberts Building 421, followed by reception in Roberts Foyer

Synopsis: Probabilistic catastrophe loss models were first developed in the late 1980s, in response to the problems faced by insurers around pricing and setting reserves for catastrophic classes of loss, such as earthquakes and hurricanes. A few decades or even a Century of catastrophe experience does not reveal the full picture of loss, which is why the models contain synthetic catalogues of more than 10,000  years of catastrophe events. Building and calibrating a model requires developing solutions to a wide range of science and data problems. Today the models are being modified to output 'non-traditional' metrics such as loss of life or livelihoods, employed to measure progress towards disaster reduction targets and to support cost benefit analyses of alternative risk mitigation strategies.

Dr Robert Muir-Wood is the Chief Research Officer of Risk Management Solutions. He co-founded the London office of RMS in 1996. He has a degree in Natural Sciences and a PhD in Earth Sciences, both from Cambridge University. He is the author of many scientific papers on the analysis of earthquakes, hurricanes and windstorms, more than 150 articles and six books. He has more than 20 years experience in developing probabilistic catastrophe models, and has led projects to build models for earthquake, tropical cyclone, windstorm and flood, in Europe, Japan, North America, Caribbean and Australia and has been the technical lead on a number of Catastrophe risk securitization transactions. He has also lectured widely on catastrophe risk and the business response to climate change. He was Lead Author on Insurance, Finance and Climate Change for the 2007 4th IPCC Assessment Report and is Vice Chair of the OECD High Level Advisory Board of the International Network on the Financial Management of Large Scale Catastrophes. He has recently been appointed as a Visiting Professor in the UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction.

This seminar is free to attend, but you need to register