UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction


Empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for risk analysis: online training

06 November 2023–07 November 2023, 8:00 am–10:00 am

illustrative curve diagram

This two-day online event, run in partnership with ETRiS – Geo-INQUIRE, will provide in-program training and user testing for the European Tsunami Risk Service datasets: Empirical Risk Products – Fragility and Vulnerability Curves.

This event is free.

Event Information

Open to







Professor Fatemeh Jalayer – UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction

Excellent science is enabled and enriched through making relevant scientific research tools and results directly accessible to scientific communities and civil societies. The European Tsunami Risk Service (ETRiS) aims to collect, harmonise and make available tsunami-risk-related data (e.g. impact, damage, consequences), data products (e.g. fragility and vulnerability curves), software, and services in ways that are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable by a broad user base. The European Tsunami Risk Service is part of the candidate Thematic Core Service for tsunami and is integrated into the Integrated Core Service Data Portal of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS).

Although the timing of the course is to mark the UN’s World Tsunami Awareness Day, the skills and knowledge covered are applicable to any kind of natural hazard (e.g., seismic, flood, hurricane, etc).

Learning goals

  • To get familiar with the underlying concepts of probabilistic hazard and risk analysis assuming a Homogenous Poisson Process.
  • To get an overview of empirical fragility assessment, uncertainty treatment, and fragility model selection using generalized regression models.
  • To learn how to derive vulnerability functions based on fragility curves and consequence models.
  • To use data products such as fragility and vulnerability curves for probabilistic risk analysis.

ETRiS and Geo-INQUIRE welcome anyone interested in learning about these concepts and tools, particularly early-career students, researchers, and catastrophy modellers.

We promote equality, diversity and inclusion under the advice of the Equality, Diversity and Inclusion Panel at all events organised as part of Geo-INQUIRE. In particular, we support registrations from women, early career scientists and people from widening countries.

The European Tsunami Risk Service is a virtual access installation of the multi-risk products within the Horizon Europe Project Geo-INQUIRE funded by the European Commission under project number 101058518 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01 call.


Monday, 06 November 2023, from 8:00 to 10:00 GMT (F. Jalayer, UCL)

  • Introduction to:
    • The forward probabilistic risk formulation;
    • Damage scales;
    • Fragility curves for a class of exposed asset;
    • The definition of empirical fragility curves;
    • The definition of Vulnerability curves;
    • Empirical fragility assessment using generalized regression models;
    • Bayesian Model Class selection for choosing the best fragility model

Tuesday, 07 November 2023, from 8:00 to 10:00 GMT (H. Ebrahimian, UNINA)

  • Interactive practical session using ETRIS software and datasets:
    • Application to empirical fragility and vulnerability assessment based on survey data from past tsunami events;
    • How to choose the best fragility model?
    • How to compare fragility curves for similar classes of buildings?
    • How to use the fragility and vulnerability curves to calculate risk?