CRUST (Cascading Risk and Uncertainty assessment of earthquake Shaking and Tsunami) takes advantage of the UK's leadership in uncertainty evaluation of earthquake source and ground motion and on-shore tsunami impact research to develop an innovative cross-hazard risk assessment methodology for cascading disasters that promotes dynamic decision-making processes for catastrophe risk management. CRUST is composed of four work packages (WPs): WP1-'Ground shaking risk modelling due to mega-thrust subduction earthquakes'; WP2-'Tsunami wave and fragility modelling due to mega-thrust subduction earthquakes'; WP3-'Integrated multi-hazards modelling for earthquake shaking and tsunami'; and WP4-'Case studies for the Hikurangi and Cascadia subduction zones'.

The aims of WP1 are: to generate strong motion time-histories based on uncertain earthquake slips, reflecting multiple asperities (large slip patches) over a fault plane (WP1-1); to characterise spatiotemporal occurrence of aftershocks using global catalogues of subduction earthquakes (WP1-2); and to conduct probabilistic seismic performance assessment of structures subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences (WP1-3). WP2 comprises tsunami wave profile and inundation simulation using uncertain earthquake slips (WP2-1); characterisation of tsunami loads to structures in coastal areas through large-scale physical experiments using an innovative long wave generation system at HR Wallingford (WP2-2); and development of analytical tsunami fragility models in comparison with field observations and experiments (WP2-3). WP3 integrates the model components developed from WP1 and WP2 into a comprehensive framework for multi-hazards risk assessment for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (WP3-1). Then, practical engineering tools for the multi-hazards method will be developed in WP3-2. Finally, in WP4, the developed multi-hazards methodology will be applied to the Hikurangi and Cascadia subduction zones. 

Funding: EPSRC 

Consortium: AIR WorldwideArup Group Ltd, British Consulate - Vancouver, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, GNS Science HQ (Lower Hutt), Imperial College London (UK), Kyoto University (Japan), Tohoku University (Japan), University of British Columbia (Canada), University of Manchester (UK), The University of Western Ontario (Canada), Willis Research Network

Epicetre Staff Involved: Tiziana Rossetto (Co-I), Ian Eames, Andrew Foster,  Christian Klettner, David McGovern, Crescenzo Petrone, Tristan Robinson.

Other researchers: Katsu Goda (PI) and Raffaele De Risi.

Stochastic inundation depth contour maps for IwanumaTsunami collapse fragility curves evaluated with different analysis methodologies