Paul has worked as research assistant for the World Bank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and Universidad del Rosario (Colombia). Bachelor (2009) and Master (2011) in Economics awarded by Universidad del Rosario, where he took part of the programme Jóvenes Investigadores which prepares students who are willing to pursue a research career. Paul also has experience teaching at both undergraduate and graduate levels in Universidad del Rosario (Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Economic history) and University College London (Health Economics, Development Economics, Programme Evaluation for Users). His PhD studies were funded by Banco de la República (Colombian Central Bank), COLFUTURO, and by an award from the NBER-IFS International Network on the Value of Medical Research.
- Applied microeconomics
- Structural models
- Economics of health
- Economics of education
This paper proposes a structural dynamic life-cycle model for studying the economic value of the adoption of medical innovations. It allows for both cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness calculations, the two standard tools for economic evaluation, while considering long-run gains on productivity and welfare derived from adjusting savings and labour supply through the life. This method considers not only the direct disability effect of bad health, but also how current choices are modified in response to improved prospects of future health. As a case study, I consider the case of a medication, namely statins, which reduces the odds of developing cardiovascular diseases. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) from 2002/03 to 2012/13, it is possible to calculate the value of such use of the drug (£110 billion), and how it varies according to alternative policy scenarios. On top of being cost-effective, a cost of £4795 per quality adjusted life year gained, the use of this drug is shown to produce £680 on additional labour income per year with the same amount of money.
- Dr. Marcos Vera Hernández (UCL)
- Dr. Áureo de Paula (UCL)
- Dr. Eric French (UCL)