A project examining how any future referendum on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland would be best designed and conducted.
The Constitution Unit has teamed up with partner institutions in Belfast and Dublin to examine how any future referendum on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland (often known as a ‘border poll’) would best be designed and conducted.
Such a vote is envisaged by the Good Friday Agreement. Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is obliged to call one if a majority for a united Ireland appears likely. Recent developments have increased the chances that this condition could be met in the coming years. Yet no detailed public thinking has been done on what form the vote should take. Fundamental problems may therefore arise: a badly structured process could become chaotic, the results might not be accepted as legitimate, and there could be civil unrest.
The project, which is made possible by generous funding from the British Academy under its Humanities and Social Sciences Tackling the UK’s International Challenges programme, responds to this challenge by bringing together a Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland. Comprising scholars with expertise in politics, law, sociology, and history, this group will consult and deliberate, and expects to produce a report in autumn 2020. The members of the Working Group are listed below.
- Background Paper
In preparation for the main project, the Unit published a background report in March 2019 that sought to stimulate discussion by outlining the key issues. Written by Unit Honorary Senior Research Associate and former civil servant Alan Whysall, this set out the current situation, including the gaps and anomalies in the existing legal provision, and examined possible ways of addressing these deficiencies.
Read the Report
- Key Questions
The questions that the Working Group is exploring cover referendums both north and south of the border and processes before, during, and after the vote itself. They include (but are not limited to):
- How would the process of a border poll in the North be triggered? What objective evidence should be used to gauge whether the majority of people in Northern Ireland might favour a united Ireland?
- What options for Ireland’s and Northern Ireland’s future governance could be considered if there were votes in favour of Irish unity, and what implications would these have for the nature of the decision-making process? Who should make such decisions about the process, and on what basis?
- How and where in the process should citizens be engaged in discussions about the options? Might citizens’ assemblies be employed, as has happened in Ireland recently on matters such as same-sex marriage and abortion?
- On what basis should a referendum be held in the South? Would there need as a matter of law and practicality to be both pre-negotiation and post-negotiation referendums there? And if so, is it feasible to have a post-negotiation poll in the South but not in the North?
- How would the campaigns during the referendum be regulated? How should the ballot papers be designed? What provisions would be made to ensure that voters could make an informed choice free from unfair campaign practices?
- What should be the qualifications for voting in border polls, North and South?
- Working Group members
Arthur Aughey is Emeritus Professor of Politics at Ulster University and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull. He is an expert on unionism in Northern Ireland and has published widely on constitutional change and politics in the United Kingdom. His latest book, The Conservative Party and the Nation: Union, England and Europe, was published in 2018.
Dr Oran Doyle is Associate Professor in Law at Trinity College Dublin. He is an expert on Irish and comparative constitutional law, and his latest book, The Irish Constitution: A Contextual Analysis was published by Hart in 2018. In 2016–17, he was a constitutional law advisor to the Irish Citizens’ Assembly. In 2019–20, he is a visiting scholar at the University of Pennsylvania.
John Garry is Professor of Political Behaviour at Queen’s University Belfast and a Fellow of the Senator George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice. His research interests focus on electoral and deliberative democracy, his most recent book being Consociation and Voting in Northern Ireland. He is now leading a major study of deliberative democracy in Northern Ireland on the topic of ‘Brexit and the border’.
Dr Paul Gillespie is Senior Research Fellow and the Deputy Director of the Institute for British–Irish Studies in the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin, and a long-standing columnist with The Irish Times. He specialises in Irish–British relations and European integration. He is co-editor of Britain and Europe: The Endgame, An Irish Perspective, published by the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin.
Cathy Gormley-Heenan is Professor of Politics and Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Research & Impact) at Ulster University. She is an expert on Northern Irish politics and the politics of peace processes and divided societies, and has published a notable range of articles and reports on Northern Ireland’s peace walls. She is also a regular political commentator for the BBC.
Dr Katy Hayward is Reader in Sociology and a Fellow in the Senator George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice at Queen’s University Belfast. Having long-standing expertise on the impact of the EU on the Irish border and peace process, she is currently a Senior Fellow of the ESRC-funded UK in a Changing Europe initiative, focusing on Brexit and Northern Ireland/the Irish border.
Professor Robert Hazell was the founder and first Director of the Constitution Unit from 1995 until 2015. He is an expert on most aspects of the UK constitution, including devolution and inter-governmental relations. He led the Unit’s early work on Scottish independence, and has long maintained an interest in independence and re-unification referendums.
Dr David Kenny is Assistant Professor of Law at Trinity College Dublin. He is an expert on Irish and comparative constitutional law, and is co-author of the recent 5th edition of Kelly: The Irish Constitution, the leading text on Irish constitutional law. He has given evidence on Irish constitutional reform to parliamentary committees and the Citizen’s Assembly. His research interests include referendums and the constitutional implications of Brexit for Ireland.
Christopher McCrudden is Professor of Human Rights and Equality Law at Queen’s University Belfast, William W Cook Global Law Professor at the University of Michigan Law School, and a Fellow of the British Academy. He is an expert on human rights law and power-sharing, his current research focusing on the foundational principles underpinning human rights practice.
Brendan O’Leary is Lauder Professor of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, and World Leading Researcher, Visiting Professor of Political Science, and Mitchell Institute International Fellow at Queen’s University Belfast. He is an expert on power-sharing, deeply divided places, and the history of Northern Ireland. His latest publications include a three-volume study called A Treatise on Northern Ireland, published in April 2019.
Dr Alan Renwick is project lead for the Working Group and Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit. He is an expert on elections, referendums, and deliberative democracy, his recent work focusing particularly on how to foster more informed and deliberative discourse in politics. He led the 2017 Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit and was Research Director for the Independent Commission on Referendums in 2017–18.
Dr Etain Tannam is Associate Professor of International Peace Studies at Trinity College Dublin. She is an expert on Irish–Northern Irish cross-border cooperation and on British–Irish intergovernmental and diplomatic cooperation, with particular emphasis on Brexit’s impact. She is currently writing a book British–Irish relations in the 21st century, forthcoming with Oxford University Press.
Alan Whysall is an Honorary Senior Research Associate at the Constitution Unit. He was previously a senior civil servant in the Northern Ireland Office, where he worked for many years on the Northern Ireland peace process. He wrote the background report that formed the starting point for this project.
The members of the Working Group are keen to hear from anyone with views on the matters they are examining. Further details of consultation arrangements will be added here in due course.
- Partner institutions