UCL Energy Institute


Pablo E. Carvajal

Thesis title: Large Hydropower, Decarbonisation and Climate Change Uncertainty: Modelling Power Sector Pathways for Ecuador

Primary Supervisor: Gabril Anandarajah
Secondary Supervisor: Yacob Mulugetta

Start date: February 2015
Completion date: February 2019

Traditional optimisation techniques when modeling energy systems seek to minimize cost and/or GHG emissions. However, investment decisions from an investor’s perspective not only seek to invest in the least-cost options but on least-risk characteristics of the electricity portfolio.  

My research focuses in including financial portfolio theory as an additional proxy for assessing optimised electricity generation portfolios. This would lead to having not only a single or a deterministic set of optimal scenarios but a whole range of cost-risk Pareto efficient portfolios that allows the policy maker to choose according to his/her risk seeking characteristics.

Applied to developing countries this approach brings new criteria for analysing the impact of the uncertainty of climate change and the risk of cost overruns of large infrastructure. I use a TIMES energy system optimisation model for the Republic of Ecuador and include risk parameters in the objective function to account for uncertainty. 


Pablo E. Carvajal has 8 years of experience in the energy sector in Latin America and Europe. He has hands-on experience in biogas, PV mini-grids and solar thermal collectors. He has been energy advisor to the Ecuadorian government and also a consultant for GIZ and IRENA. He has lectured on energy systems, renewable energy and climate finance. He holds a M.Sc. in Renewable Energy from the University of Oldenburg in Germany, and a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering. He is currently a Ph.D. researcher at the Energy Institute of the University College London, focusing on energy-economic system modeling. 


SCHAEFFER, CARVAJAL, CHAVEZ, EGÜEZ, et. al., Looking to the Andes: long-term scenarios of oil supply and demand for Peru, Colombia and Ecuador, International Agency for Energy Economics, April 2014.

CARVAJAL, Stakeholder mapping for the development of Renewable Energy in Ecuador, 2013. First International Congress in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Quito, Dec 2013.

CARVAJAL, ORBE, Ecuadorian Energy Balance, Coordinating Ministry of Strategic Sectors, 2013 and 2014.

CARVAJAL, Ecuadorian Wind Atlas, Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy of Ecuador, March 2013.

CARVAJAL, LCOE Analysis of Rural PV mini-grids in Brazil, 2013, Conference: Micro Perspectives for Decentralized Energy Supply. Technische Universität Berlin, Mar 2013.  

CARVAJAL, SORIA, Biogas: an alternative for energy expansion in Ecuador, Energy magazine of the National Energy Control Center of Ecuador. January 2012. ISSN 1390-5074

CARVAJAL, MORENO, Design and simulation of the Hybrid Energy System for Isabela Island in the Galapagos Islands, National Energy Control Centre of Ecuador. January 2013. ISSN 1390-5074

CARVAJAL, Standardization of PV mini-grids for the Brazilian Amazonia, Magazine “Energy for Sustainable Development”, October 2012.