CASA Working Paper 217

Most spatio-temporal studies of house price in the UK are carried out at national or regional scale, but house prices differences could be better understood at finer spatial scales. Since England’s house prices, standardised by the size of the property (£/m2), have been shown to be somewhat clustered at local authority level and highly clustered at Middle Layer Super Output (MSOA) level, in the period 2009 to 2016, this research aims to further explore the nature of spatial and temporal variation in house prices at local authority level in England. Growth curve modelling offers a model-based description of the spatio-temporal patterns of local authority house price variation. This research explores local authority effects and three different time effects (quarter, half-year and year) on house price spatio-temporal variation. Results show that these three time effects are essentially identical and are extremely small, in comparison with local authority effects. Since annual effects provide the best fit, local authority annual house price trajectories between 2009 and 2016 are further explored. Local authorities with higher house prices in 2009 are found to have faster growing prices over the eight-year period than local authorities with lower house prices. Moreover, two clear geographic hubs of house price change over the period are observed, one centred on London, the other on Bristol. 

Keywords: Local authority, house price variation, growth curve modelling, England

Authors: Bin Chi, Adam Dennett, Thomas Oléron-Evans, Robin Morphet

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