The Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis


Notting Hill: The Notting Hill Carnival Public Safety Project

We have worked with the UCL spin-off company Intelligent Space for the GLA in examining public safety for the Notting Hill Carnival.

Crowding in a critical problem with conflicts between the parade, moving vehicles, and pedestrians, with dense crowds around the fixed sounds systems (bands). We have built a series of different models which examine how crowds move to the Carnival and within the streets of the Carnival area, so that we can begin to examine alternative routes for the parade that seek to minimise the problems of congestion.

The models that relate most strongly to CASA's research programme are those which are agent-based. We are able to simulate crowds in the street system by finding links between origins and destinations using algorithms adapted from swarming in ant populations. Once these routes are known, we launch agents from their entry points and assess the extent to which crowding and panic situations emerge as they move towards the Carnival events. These are situations which are then managed by the police through street closures and street barriers.


Michael Batty
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Jake Desyllas

agent-based modelling London