The Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis


CASA Working Paper 182

23 April 2012

Modelling maritine piracy: a spatial approach

This paper presents an initial demonstration of a model to generate dynamic patterns of maritime piracy. Model details, outputs and a method for assessing the goodness of fit of model outcomes are presented. The model presented here is a tool to produce dynamic maritime piracy risk maps. The Gulf of Aden is considered as a case study, and data on pirates attacks, vessels routes and flows through the Gulf of Aden in the year 2010 are used to build and calibrate the model.

Agent-based modelling is employed to simulate pirate, vessel and naval forces behaviours. This approach might be used to test different strategies to fight maritime piracy, not just by testing naval behaviours but also by exploiting ABM capabilities to test social factors that might deter such a phenomenon.

Authors:  Elio Marchione, Shane Johnson and Alan Wilson

Publication Date: 23rd April 2012


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