Short courses


Predictive Mapping for Crime: GIS-Based Training

  • 7 hours
  • 1 day


This one-day GIS-based professional training course explores the use of theoretically robust techniques for predicting where and when crime is likely to occur in the future.

It draws heavily on UCL's successful predictive policing and prospective mapping work that's been implemented in Greater Manchester, the West Midlands and Derbyshire. This work has been applied to many different types of crime, not just burglary, including bike theft, violent crime, gun shootings and improvised explosive devices.

The course is run by UCL's Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science. It's held at our offices in London, but can also be delivered at your site for a minimum of eight staff.

Course content

The course focuses on exploiting analytical methods for repeat victimisation (RV), near repeat victimisation (NRV) and hotspot analysis.

We begin by critiquing approaches for predicting where and when crime is likely to occur in the future. 

We then focus on the technical process for identifying RV, and the metrics used for measuring these repeats. This helps to establish the extent of RV and the impact that any initiative may have in addressing RVs. 

We'll explore the theory underpinning RV (boost and flag accounts), and extend this by considering the optimal foraging behaviour of offenders. This leads us towards evidencing patterns of NRV, and how NRV can be measured and used in a predictive policing strategy.

We'll then look at mapping applications that can be used for predicting where crime is likely to happen in the future. This includes a critique of hotspot analysis, prospective mapping tools, and buffering areas of risk around recent incidents.

We'll discuss the response opportunities that follow predictive mapping analysis, including:

  • tactical options for reducing future victimisation
  • offender detection opportunities
  • public reassurance
  • strategic resource targeting

Who this course is for

This short course is suitable for:

  • police
  • neighbourhood and CSP (community safety partnership) analysts
  • researchers
  • information officers

It's aimed at users of ArcGIS or MapInfo.

You'll need to be proficient in the use of GIS, and able to make use of the free Near Repeat Calculator tool. 

Cost and concessions

There's a 10% reduction for bookings of two or more people - all group delegates must be booked at the same time.

Course team

Spencer Chainey

Spencer Chainey

Spencer is the Principal Research Associate at the UCL Department of Security and Crime Science. His particular research interests are in developing geographical crime analysis and crime mapping. He carries out most of his day-to-day work on developing the use of data, information sharing and analysis to aid intelligence development and decision-making by police forces, community safety partnerships, and national crime reduction and policing agencies.

His work has influenced national (UK) policy, and has contributed to policing and crime reduction developments in the USA, Canada, Brazil, China, Germany, Northern Ireland, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. His work is also used in examples of good practice by the UK Cabinet Office (Social Exclusion Unit), Local Government Improvement and Development, The Home Office, the Audit Commission, The Housing Corporation and the United States National Institute of Justice.

Course information last modified: 30 Nov 2022, 16:00