The Latin American Revolts Project (LARP) - new publication

Latin America, which is the most violent region in the world in terms of homicide rates, has increasingly militarized its approach to fighting crime. Is this strategy efficient? Is it sustainable? And what are the costs? In a recent article with International Security, C&C member and UCL faculty Luis L. Schenoni joins forces with the Harold C. and Alice T. Nowlin Regents Professor in Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin, Raul L. Madrid, to  analyze how South America went from the most politically violent region in the world in the nineteenth century to a stable one by the turn of the twentieth century.

The data for the analysis comes from the Latin American Revolts Project (LARP), funded in the UK by the British Academy and the UCL Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy. The project identifies revolts in Latin America since 1830 and manually codes them based on primary and secondary historical sources. Prior to its UCL-phase, LARP had identified 1,500 revolts—making it the most complete dataset on political violence in the region for the period 1830-1930—and gathered data on various aspects of these revolts, including their objectives, duration, rebel group size, casualties, and rebel aims. The International Security article focused on the data for South America from 1830 to 1930.

Since Dr. Schenoni’s arrival to UCL, LARP has expanded beyond 1930 and to other regions such as Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean.  LARP now counts two other principal investigators, Paola Galano Toro from ETH Zurich and Guillermo Kreiman from Universidad Carlos III, who met Dr. Schenoni at UCL as a presenter at our annual C&C PhD Workshop and as a visiting doctoral researcher, respectively. Since 2021 they have coordinated large teams of students from Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Argentina (where Dr. Schenoni is an Affiliated Professor) to contribute to the expansion of what is expected to become the dataset on political violence in Latin America with the largest historical coverage. The dataset is also expected to become a tour de force in our conceptualization of political violence by introducing and operationalising the novel concept of revolt.

The preliminary analysis of the dataset presented in the International Studies article focuses on South America from 1830 to 1930 and underscores the crucial role of bolstering military and security forces in deterring domestic political violence. Historical data demonstrates that the expansion and professionalization of the military during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries significantly decreased revolts by non-state actors. This decline in revolts correlates strongly with indicators of military strength and professionalization, suggesting that a capable military acts as a deterrent to rebellion. Increases in military strength, such as troop numbers or the establishment of military academies, are associated with a notable decrease in the likelihood of revolts.

However, the sustainability and rationale of militarization strategies are called into question nowadays. While nineteenth-century South American states could afford to invest heavily in their armed forces due to economic growth and international tensions, such conditions are absent today. Maintaining dramatic increases in armed forces may prove challenging without sustained economic growth and external threats. Additionally, contemporary violence in the region is predominantly criminal rather than political, posing different challenges for militaries ill-suited to combating dispersed criminal gangs. Furthermore, current militarization trends risk undermining democracy, as politicized militaries may infringe upon civil rights and contribute to democratic backsliding.  While militarization played a role in transitioning from chaos to order in the nineteenth century, contemporary dynamics necessitate caution in evaluating militaristic strategies. If pursued, prioritizing the professionalization of security forces and ensuring military neutrality in political matters are paramount.

Ultimately, understanding the nineteenth century in Latin America sheds light on the sustainability and risks associated with current militarization trends, advocating for a nuanced approach that carefully considers structural and institutional factors.
 

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