UCL Grand Challenges


Delineating the Epidemiology of first episode Psychosis In Chile

A nationwide register study of 30,000 incident cases between 2005 and 2018 (the DEPiCt study).

Chile red sign in San Cristobal mountain view point with Costanera Center building behind logo

2 October 2019


Grant: Grand Challenges Small Grants
Year awarded: 2019-20
Amount awarded: £7,373


  • James Kirkbride, Division of Psychiatry, Brain Sciences
  • Tao Ding, Department of Statistical Sciences 
  • African Union

People with psychotic disorders, such as schizophrenia, face reduced life expectancy of 10-20 years and massive inequalities in physical health and social outcomes (unemployment, social isolation). Such disorders affect up to 3% of people in their lifetime and are more common in deprived or urban settings, though knowledge is almost exclusively based on European, North American or Australasian data. We know almost nothing about incidence in the Global South, or whether risk factors behave similarly in such settings. This limits our ability to inform effective local mental health service provision and broader aetiology.

The team conducted a synthesis and critique of the current epidemiological evidence on the incidence of psychotic disorders in the Global South, and estimated the incidence of non-affective psychotic disorders in Chile, accounting variations over time and between regions. They established a national, population-based prediction tool to forecast future expected incidence of non-affective psychotic disorders across Chile until 2035.

Image: iStock/ JosuOzkaritz

Outputs and Impacts