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COVID-19: Evidence to Inform Policy & Mitigate the Impact in Nigeria

This project aims to provide a framework for the Nigerian response to COVID-19 grounded in multi-disciplinary scientific data and ethical considerations.

Project Summary 

With less than 400 intensive care beds, and about 350 ventilators in country, Nigeria’s ability to mount a major therapeutic response is limited. Testing is being increased across the country and isolation centres have been established, generating more data and hopefully help contain the spread of the virus. 

The response in Nigeria is led by the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19, comprised of leading policy makers, and should be supported by academic and civil society stakeholders.

To support their work, this project works to summarize international evidence and best practices, generate and synthesize local data with NCDC and other local partners, and articulate and disseminate the best evidence to inform policy and action.

Our deliverable will be linked with the Nigeria Lancet Commission to ensure that we maximize lessons learned, while contributing to the ongoing response.

Approach 

This project provides on-demand synthesis and communication of information and evidence to the PTF for COVID-19, as well additional data and evidence on the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 and effects on non-COVID diseases and health system. The project operates via two interconnected work packages: 

Work package #1

Overarching evidence synthesis and triangulation of a) COVID-19 disease projections, b) proposed control measures, and c) indirect effects on health systems and routine health sector activities, to the PTF.

Work package #2

Additional modelling outputs consisting of: a) UCL developed SEIR model, b) modified version of the Imperial College agent based model, c) analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on maternal and child health outcomes, and d) sero-epidemiological and contact data to help with parametrizing models with Nigeria-specific data, which will transparently contribute to the models synthesized and triangulated under WP #1. 

Links to other research

Other research from the UCL Centre for Molecular Epidemiology and Translational Research

Other research from IGH on Modelling, Epidemiology, Public Health, Evidence into Action and Infectious Diseases

Other research from IGH in Nigeria and the UK