Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care


Objectives and Impact


  1. We will combine observed demographic and epidemiological trends to forecast incidence and prevalence of dementia, disability and cardiovascular disease in China to 2060. Our model is  based on the UK’s IMPACT-BAM (Better Ageing Model) framework (Ahmadi-Abhari et al., 2017). The epidemiological simulation models for China and UK will permit valuable comparison of key policy-relevant trends in ageing and health.  The project utilizes the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS), the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study Health (CHARLS) and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA).  We use repeat measures of cognitive and physical function to identify dementia, thereby avoiding potential diagnostic bias.
  2. We will estimate the direct and indirect health and social care costs associated with dependency of the ageing population in both countries, projected to 2060. 
  3. Using policy scenario modelling, we will evaluate the impact of a range of possible health prevention and intervention scenarios.
  4. Given the projected large burden of dependency in China and UK, a policy analysis will be conducted to evaluate policy responses and the extent to which they are likely to meet projected needs. This will utilise a ‘trans-positional’ assessment with both Chinese and UK policy analysts, thus making explicit the cultural (and positional) dependence of observation.


We hope that these findings will have a wide-reaching impact on the formulation and revision of relevant health and social care policies in both the UK and China. We anticipate that our research can be used as a point of reference to support the development of age-related policies in other contexts.