UCL Department of Economics


Theory/Experimental Seminar - Laurent Bouton (Georgetown)

14 February 2023, 4:30 pm–6:00 pm

Quad and Wilkins Building

Gerrymandering when Turnout Rates Differ

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Duarte Goncalves

We study the strategic drawing of electoral maps by political parties, known as gerrymandering. We develop a theoretical framework in which individuals have two dimensions of heterogeneity: partisanship and the probability of turning out. In this framework, parties adopt different gerrymandering strategies depending on the turnout rates of their supporters relative to that of their opponents. This framework allows us to derive a number of empirical implications about the link between partisan support, turnout rates, and electoral maps. Using a novel empirical strategy relying on the comparison of maps proposed by Democrats and Republicans during the 2020 redistricting cycle in the US, we find support for these predictions.

Location: 118 Chandler House or join via Zoom

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