Statistical Science


Spatial-Temporal Rainfall Modelling with Climate Change Scenarios

A research project supported by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs


This project is funded by DEFRA as part of their Flood and Coastal Defence research program. Within this program, Broad-Scale Modelling (BSM) has been identified as a priority thematic area. BSM is required to provide a new level of decision-support for strategic assessment of flood risk and flood management, including assessment of impacts of climate and land use change. To achieve this, continuous simulation hydrological modelling is required. Continuous simulation modelling represents a major development in methodology, which has, in addition to its role in BSM, important benefits for flood design practice.

In related DEFRA-funded projects, including FD2105 Improved methods for national spatial-temporal rainfall and evaporation modelling for BSM, regionally-applicable methods for the continuous simulation of rainfall and evaporation are being developed. This project will extend these methods to represent scenarios of climate change, by linking the tools being developed in FD210 with the outputs from the latest numerical climate models to provide inputs to catchment rainfall-runoff models at appropriate temporal scales for flood estimation. A significant part of the project is devoted to incorporating climate model uncertainty into the simulation tools.

The project started in October 2003, and runs until September 2006. The research is being carried out jointly between the Statistical Science department at UCL, and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Imperial College. The research is overseen by a steering committee of experts from various organisations: see the links page for more details.

Other pages

Reports - for reports and working papers related to this project, as well as presentations from a launch meeting held at CEH Wallingford on 2nd May 2007
Software - software to download, arising out of work on this and related projects.
Links - to web pages of other organisations involved in the project, as well as to related resources elsewhere.


Enquiries about this project should be addressed either to Richard Chandler (email: richard@stats.ucl.ac.uk) at UCL, or to Christian Onof (email:c.onof@imperial.ac.uk) at Imperial College.