Statistical Science


Professor Afzal S. Siddiqui

PositionProfessor of Energy Economics
Phone (external)+44(0)20 7679 1871
Phone (internal)41871
Personal webpagehttp://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucakasi/
ThemesGeneral Theory and Methodology, Stochastic Modelling of Complex Systems

* @ucl.ac.uk 


Biographical Details

Afzal S. Siddiqui is Professor of Energy Economics in the Department of Statistical Science. Previously, he was a Senior Lecturer at UCL (2010-2017), a Lecturer in Statistics at UCL (2005-2010), and a College Lecturer in the Department of Banking and Finance at University College Dublin. After having completed his Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research from the University of California at Berkeley in 2002, Afzal served as a Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research at UC Berkeley (2002) and a Visiting Post-doctoral Researcher at the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (2002-2003). In addition, he is a Professor at the Department of Computer and Systems Sciences of Stockholm University and an Adjunct Professor at the Systems Analysis Laboratory of Aalto University.

Research Interests

Afzal's research interests are in energy economics, specifically the application of financial and operational research methods for making decisions under uncertainty and competition. Indeed, the deregulation of electricity industries worldwide means that policymakers must anticipate the behaviour of market participants when setting targets for sustainability. Thus, it is desirable to use tools such as complementarity modelling, real options, and stochastic programming to analyse investment in and operation of renewable energy technologies. The objective of Afzal's work is to gain insights that will assist producers and consumers to make more informed decisions, e.g., about technology choice and risk management, and to provide policy guidance when designing market mechanisms. Previously, he was involved with the ELDEV project in Trondheim, Norway, which sought to foster closer cooperation between industry and academia, namely in the area of improved business practices for the electric power industry. He has also contributed to the development of a deterministic optimisation tool, DER-CAM, that solves a microgrid's DG investment and operational problem in detail. Recently concluded work involved a Natural Environment Research Council project on the application of real options in energy-sector decarbonisation as well as coordination of an EU FP7 project, EnRiMa, which used stochastic optimisation in order to improve energy efficiency and manage risk in European public buildings. Ongoing work involves DAMS 2.0 (sustainable dams in DAC list countries), STRIDES (strategic planning for a renewable power system), and PlanFES (algorithms for decision support in power system planning).

Current and Former Research Students

  • Michail ChronopoulosInvestment Decision Making under Uncertainty: The Impact of Risk Aversion, Operational Flexibility, and Competition (2007-2011)
  • Lucas Dias CondeixaOptimization of Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning: the Impacts of Emerging Technologies (2018-present at Aalto University; instructor)
  • Mingzhi Dong: Robust Localised Learning for Classification (2013-2018; subsidiary supervisor)
  • Xiaojia Guo: Decision Analysis and Time-Series Models (2013-present; subsidiary supervisor)
  • Somayeh HeydariTime-Series and Real Options Analysis of Energy Markets (2006-2010)
  • Lajos Maurovich-Horvat: Decision Making under Uncertainty and Competition for Sustainable Energy Technologies (2009-2014)
  • Tuomas Rintamäki: Studies on Flexible Integration of Renewable Energy (2015-present at Aalto University; instructor)
  • Vilma VirasjokiDecision Models of Energy Markets for Investment and Policy Analysis (2015-present at Aalto University; instructor)
  • Verena ViškovićEquilibrium Analysis of Carbon Emissions Caps in Regional Electricity Markets (2013-2018)

Current and Former Post-Doctoral Researchers

  • Michail ChronopoulosAn Options Approach to UK Energy Futures (2011-2012; subsidiary supervisor)
  • Sébastien DebiaStrategic Renewable and Transmission Investment in a Decentralised Electricity Sector (2017-present; subsidiary supervisor)
  • Somayeh HeydariEnergy Efficiency and Risk Management in Public Buildings (2011-2012)
  • Paula RochaEnergy Efficiency and Risk Management in Public Buildings (2013-2014)

Selected Publications


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