Mohamed H. Gaballa
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Forecasting Adversary’s Scenarios: Systemic Competitive Red Teaming
In the last few decades, a number of tools have been developed to support crime and intelligence analysts in assessing security threats. For example, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method has been proposed in the 1970’s as a systematic tool for dealing with human biases. Other methods involving the use of Bayesian networks are also often proposed by the scientific community to accurately assess the likelihood of particular hypotheses when faced with numerous items of evidence.
In this experimental research project, a new hybrid method combining the core principles of quantitative techniques and structured techniques will be investigated. The resulting method will improve the ability of security agencies to draw more accurate conclusions from various pieces of intelligence. Ultimately, a reduction in the number of intelligence failures will contribute to improve public confidence in our services, as well as reducing the risk associated with threats from organised crime and terrorism.
Factors influencing intelligence analysts performance in using Bayesian and automated analysis of competing hypotheses
The study examines the impact of using different analytical methods in intelligence analysis on the final judgment. The Analytical methodology under consideration is the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The study focused on the Automated ACH and Bayesian ACH, along with intuitive judgement as a reference. The research question is: “Is the Bayesian ACH better in safeguarding against analysis pitfalls than Automated ACH?”.
This project has been conducted using data and support from a Government Department, Leading Investment Bank, Leading Political Risk Consultancy Firm in UK, and International Organization. FES-EMF contributed to the funding of this project.
MRes Security Science
MA Intelligence and Security.
BSc Political Science.
WHY I APPLIED TO THE SECURITY SCIENCE DTC
Tackling security challenges requires a multidisciplinary approach. The innovation of the SECReT DTC, as a world class research and teaching entity, is what I have been looking for. As a student, I have access to experts in security from all relevant disciplines; engineering, politics, psychology, sociology, chemistry, policing, intelligence, law, qualitative and quantitative research methods, etc. UCL is one of the top ranked universities on earth! The valuable and extensive network of partners (from industry, government departments and academic institutions) that SECReT DTC has developed is unique.
Intelligence and Risk Analysis Techniques:
· Structured and Traditional Techniques.
· Political and Security Risk.
Judgement and Decision Making.
WHAT I DO WHEN I'M NOT STUDYING
Always studying :)
MY CAREER ASPIRATIONS
WHAT KIND OF PARTNER ORGANISATION I'D LIKE TO WORK WITH AND WHAT I'D LIKE FROM THEM
An industry partner that is:
- working on analysing information in security or risk related questions,
- aware of the different types of problems that challenges the production of sound analysis and assessment and
- willing to improve the models or methodologies of analysis that are in use.
LIST OF PUBLICATIONS
Intelligence and Military Transformations.
Future Artillery Middle East 2010.