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Research carried out by Tom O'Grady, the Institute’s Deputy Director of Education and Associate Professor of Political Science, into data trends in welfare provision in the UK has revealed a link between cuts to welfare and political and media discourse.
After reviewing data across Europe and the UK, Dr. O’Grady has uncovered links between how UK politicians and the media talk about the welfare system and public opinion.
With language use linked to cuts to welfare and Universal Credit he has put forward a policy blueprint for welfare reforms that that would raise the system’s long-term popularity, thereby helping reduce inequalities within society.
Using Hansard records, Dr. O’Grady systematically tracked thousands of political speeches relating to welfare between 1987 and 2018 using computational technology to look at patterns of positive and negative language use. He also used public opinion survey data including the British Social Attitudes Survey for the same period.
This project combined data science with the study of politics and policy, something new to the field of political science as the Institute continues to push the boundaries of data science research.
From the 1990s to the early 2010s he found there was a negative shift in public opinion towards those using the welfare and benefits system.
Despite the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath, the data shows no link between the economic cycle and public opinion on welfare. Instead, it reveals a strong link between a change in narrative by politicians and the media and overall public opinion and ultimately welfare cuts.
For example, in the 2010s extensive welfare reforms and cuts to working-age benefits came at the same time as television programmes such as ‘Benefits Street’.
Similarly, national newspapers including The Daily Mail, The Times and The Guardian who prior to the mid-1990s ran few stories relating to welfare began to focus on welfare users and benefit fraud. They concentrated on individuals and used language such as ‘lazy’, ‘unproductive’ and ‘benefit cheat’.
The data shows that both the main political parties at the time, Labour and Conservative, used similar language reframing ‘hard working families’ and ‘taxpayers’ as opposed to benefit claimants. It also shows a closer link between the public and the Labour party, with the public more likely to respond to its changing discourse.
Dr. O’Grady has brought his findings together in a book ‘The Transformation of British Welfare Policy’ and concludes with a blueprint for policy reform suggesting how welfare can be delivered and positioned in a positive and fair way.
He opposes the introduction of a universal basic income. This controversial policy could, in his view, lead to the same downward spiral of negative discourse and public opinion that took place from the 1990s to the 2010s.
Instead, he proposes a set of policy changes that would blur the lines between ‘taxpayers’ and those who use the welfare system. Contributors and claimants would no longer be separate groups, making it harder for the media and politicians to create conflict between them.