Pedro Carneiro


Department of Economics

University College London

Institute for Fiscal Studies

Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice





Recent Working Papers (for publications see below)

The Timing of Parental Job Displacement, Child Development and Family Adjustment (with Kjell Salvanes, Barton Willage and Alexander Willen), 2024

Public childcare, labor market outcomes of caregivers, and child development: experimental evidence from Brazil (with Orazio Attanasio, Ricardo Paes de Barros, David Evans, Lycia Lima, Pedro Olinto and Norbert Schady), 2024

The Short and Medium Term Impacts of Sure Start on Educational Outcomes (with Sarah Cattan, Claire Crawford and Nick Redpath), 2024

Disruption in the Classroom: Experimental Evidence from Ecuador (with Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo, Francesca Salvati, and Norbert Schady), 2024

Parental Investments and Socio-Economic Gradients in Learnings Across European Countries (with Alessandro Toppeta and Hugo Reis), 2024

Accelerating Birth Timing to Access Cash Transfers? Evidence from Households in Extreme Poverty (with Lucy Kraftman, Imran Rasul, Francesca Salvati and Molly Scott), 2024

Can Grit Be Taught? Lessons from a Nationwide Field Experiment with Middle-School Students (with Indhira Santos, Violeta Petroska-Beska, Pedro Carneiro, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ana Maria Munoz Boudet, Ines Berniell, Christian Krekel, Omar Arias and Angela Duckworth), 2024

Can Informal Health Providers Help Reach the Last Mile? Experimental Evidence on Malaria Control from Nigeria (with Yoonjei Dong, Sanghmitra Gautam, Marcus Holmlund, Costas Meghir, and Edit Velenyi), 2024

Improving Parental Investments in Children: Experimental Evidence from the Gambia (with Moussa Blimpo, Pamela Jervis, Nathalie Lahire and Todd Pugatch), 2024

Early Education, Preferences, and Decision Making Abilities (with Joana Cardim, Leandro Carvalho, and Damien de Walque), 2022

Dynamic Complementarity in Elementary Schools: Experimental Evidence from Ecuador (with Yyannu Cruz, Rafael Hernandez, and Norbert Schady), 2022

Can Subsidized Employment Tackle Long-Term Unemployment? Experimental Evidence from North Macedonia (with Alex Armand, Federico Tagliati and Yiming Xia), 2020

Interactions: Do Teacher Behaviors Predict Achievement, Executive Function, and Non-Cognitive Outcomes in Elementary School (with Alejandra Campos, Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo and Norbert Schady), 2020


Published and Forthcoming Papers


Impacts of Integrating Early Childhood with Health Services: Experimental Evidence from the Cresca Com Seu Filho Home Visiting Program (with Florencia Lopez Boo and Maria de La Paz Ferro), Journal of Human Capital

The Effect of Classroom Rank on Learning Throughout Elementary School: Experimental Evidence from Ecuador (with Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo, Francesca Salvati, and Norbert Schady), Journal of Labor Economics

The Value of Private Schools: Evidence from Pakistan (with Jishnu Das and Hugo Reis), Review of Economics and Statistics


Evaluating the Effects of a Large Scale Parenting Intervention in Chile: Nadie Es Perfecto (with Paula Bedregal, Miguel Cordero, Emanuela Galasso, Italo Lopez Garcia), Journal of Political Economy, 132(4), 1113-1161


How Does Labor Demand React to Changes in the Supply of Skills? Evidence from a Schooling Reform in Norway (with Kai Liu and Kjell Salvanes), Journal of the European Economic Association, 21(1), 48-92, 2023


Improving Access and Quality in Early Childhood Development Programs: Experimental Evidence from the Gambia (with Moussa Blimpo, Pamela Jervis and Todd Pugatch), Economic Development and Cultural Change, 70(4)

When Promising Interventions Fail: Personalized Coaching for Teachers in a Middle Income Country (with Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo, Ruthy Intriago, Juan Ponce, Norbert Schady, Sarah Schodt), Journal of Public Economics Plus, 3, 100012


The Impacts of a Multifaceted Pre-natal Intervention on Human Capital Accumulation in Early Life (with Lucy Kraftman, Giacomo Mason, Lucie Moore, Imran Rasul and Molly Scott), American Economic Review, 111(8), 2506-49

Intergenerational Mobility and the Timing of Parental Income (with Italo Lopez-Garcia, Kjell Salvanes, and Emma Tominey), Journal of Political Economy, 129(3), 757-788


The Effect of Gender-Targeted Conditional Cash Transfers on Household Expenditures: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment (with Alex Armand, Orazio Attanasio and Valerie Lechene), The Economic Journal, 130(631), 1875-1897

Please Call Me John: Name Choice and the Assimilation of Immigrants in the United States, 1900-1930 (with Sokbae Lee and Hugo Reis), Labour Economics, 62

Optimal Data Collection for Randomized Control Trials (with Sokbae Lee and Daniel Wilhelm), The Econometrics Journal, 23(1), 1-31

School Grants and Education Quality: Experimental Evidence from Senegal (with Oswald Koussihouede, Nathalie Lahire, Costas Meghir and Corina Mommaerts), Economica, 87, 28-51


Tackling Social Exclusion: Evidence from Chile (with Emanuela Galasso and Rita Ginja), Economic Journal, 129(617)


Measuring and Changing Control: Womens Empowerment and Targeted Transfers (with Ingvild Almas, Alex Armand, and Orazio Attanasio), Economic Journal, 128(612)

Enforcement of Labor Regulation and Job Flows: Evidence from Brazilian Cities (with Ana Abras, Rita Almeida and Carlos Corseuil), IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 8(1), 2018


Do Public Health Interventions Crowd Out Private Health Investments? Malaria Control Policies in Eritrea (with Alex Armand, Andrea Locatelli, Selam Mihreteab and Joseph Keating), Labour Economics, 45, 107-115

Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia (with Michael Lokshin,Cristobal Ridao-Cano, and Nithin Umapathi), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(4), 2017


Partial Insurance and Investments in Children (with Rita Ginja), Economic Journal, 126 (596) F66-F95

Teacher Quality and Learning Outcomes in Kindergarten (with Caridad Araujo, Yyannu Cruz, and Norbert Schady), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(3), 2016

Challenges to Promoting the Social Inclusion of the Extreme Poor: Evidence from a Large Scale Experiment in Colombia (with Laura Abramovsky, Orazio Attanasio, Kai Barron, and George Stoye), Economia: Journal of the LACEA, 16(2), 2016


A Flying Start? Long Term Consequences of Maternal Time Investments in Children During the First Year of Life (with Katrine Loken and Kjell Salvanes), Journal of Political Economy, 123(2), 2015


Long Term Impacts of Compensatory Pre-School on Health and Behavior: Evidence from Head Start (with Rita Ginja), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6(4), 2014


Maternal Education, Home Environments and Child Development (with Costas Meghir and Matthias Parey), Journal of European Economic Association, 11 (S1), 2013


Enforcement of Labor Regulation and Informality (with Rita Almeida), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(3), 2012


Trends in Quality Adjusted Skill Premia in the United States (with Sokbae Lee), American Economic Review, 101 (6), 2011.

Estimating Marginal Returns to Education (with James Heckman and Edward Vytlacil), American Economic Review, 101 (6), 2011.

Evaluating Indoor Residual Spray for Reducing Malaria Infection Prevalence in Eritrea: Results from a Community Randomized Control Trial (with Joseph Keating, Andrea Locatelli, Andemariam Gebremichael, Tewolde Ghebremeskel, Jacob Mufunda, SelamMihreteab and Daniel Berhane), Acta Tropica, 119 (2-3), 107-113, 2011


Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin (with James Heckman and Edward Vytlacil), Econometrica, 78, 1, 2010.

The economics of vocational education and training (with Lorraine Dearden and Anna Vignoles), in International encyclopedia of education: volume 8, eds P Peterson, E Baker & B McGaw, Elsevier, Oxford, pp.255-261, 2010.


Estimating Distributions of Potential Outcomes Using Instrumental Variables with an Application to Changes in College Enrolment and Wage Inequality (with Sokbae Lee), Journal of Econometrics, 2009

Enforcement of Regulation, Informal Employment, Firm Size and Firm Performance (with Rita Almeida), Journal of Comparative Economics, 2009


The Returns to Firm Investment in Human Capital (with Rita Almeida), Labour Economics, 2008

Inequality of Opportunity and Inequality in Education Achievement in Portugal, Portuguese Economic Journal, 7(1), April 2008


Which Skills Matter (with Claire Crawford and Alissa Goodman), in D. Kehoe, Practice Makes Perfect: The Importance of Practical Learning, Social Markets Foundation, 2007.


Labor Market Discrimination and Racial Differences in Pre-Market Factors (with James Heckman and Dimitriy Masterov), Journal of Law and Economics, 2005.

Understanding the Sources of Ethnic and Racial Wage Gaps and Their Implications for Policy (with James J. Heckman and Dimitry V. Masterov), in L. Nielsen and R. Nelson, Rights and Realities: Legal and Social Scientific Approaches to Employment Discrimination, Springer-Verlag, 2005.


Human Capital Policy for Europe, European Economy, Special Report no 3/2004, European Commision, 2004.


Methods for Evaluating the Impact of Education Policies when the Return to Education Varies Across Individuals, Cuadernos de Economia, 2003.

Estimating Distributions of Counterfactuals with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effect of Uncertainty on Schooling Choice (with Karsten Hansen and James Heckman), International Economic Review, 2003

Human Capital Policy (with James Heckman), in Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies (edited by James Heckman and Alan Krueger), MIT Press, 2003.


The Evidence on Credit Constraints in Post-Secondary Schooling (with James Heckman), Economic Journal, 2002.


Removing the Veil of Ignorance in Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Social Policy (with Karsten Hansen and James Heckman), Swedish Economic Policy Review, 2001.


Older Working Papers

The Impact of Early Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Later Outcomes (with Claire Crawford and Alissa Goodman, 2007)