Case Study - Sustainable Urban Transport

Supporting policy-making on sustainable urban transport

As global levels of CO₂ emissions from transport have risen, there has been a growing sense of the urgent need to tackle this problem. Prior to 2006, there was little consideration of climate change in UK transport planning. A major shift since then in UK and international transport policy has been significantly influenced by research on sustainable transport conducted at the Bartlett School of Planning by Dr Robin Hickman and Professor David Banister (who worked at UCL until 2006 and is now at Oxford University).

Since 2004, Hickman and Banister have worked extensively on developing novel qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches allowing the prediction and assessment (often in association with stakeholders) of the likely impact of policy measures over the long term. The work, which was first conducted for the UK Department for Transport's Horizons Programme (Visioning and Backcasting for Transport: VIBAT-UK, 2004-06), identified a requirement for behavioural, as well as technological, responses. In particular, it proposed a greater emphasis on walking, cycling, public transport and urban planning - as well as on the technological development of low emission vehicles - to reduce significantly transport CO₂ emissions. The second major study (VIBAT-London, 2007-09) was conducted in association with Halcrow, Space Syntax, Transport for London and the Greater London Authority and focused on the potential for developing low carbon transport pathways in London.

Key methods developed through the VIBAT studies included scenario analysis and backcasting; methods to quantify policy impacts and assess the likelihood of policy targets being met; a simulation modelling game (TC-SIM) to illustrate the strategic choices available to policy-makers and the trade-offs against CO₂ reduction, political and financial deliverability; and participatory scenario development. Since the studies ended in 2009, there have been significant changes in national, regional and city-based transport strategies, investment programmes and local masterplanning and urban planning approaches, at all scales of transport planning, and in multiple contexts. The research has also been used in UK government publications seeking to quantify the impact of policy measures against targets, and in many consultancy and academic studies (beyond the work of Hickman and Banister). The quantification of scenarios, for example, is now used in almost all mitigation studies in transport in the UK, providing a much clearer evidence base for policy makers.

Following this work, there has been much increased funding in public transport and active travel; an increased use of urban planning as an instrument within transport planning; and revised street design approaches. Recent trends suggest that car usage is beginning to peak in certain urban areas, especially London, and that public transport and active travel are increasing in popularity. Although by no means the only factors, the VIBAT studies have clearly contributed to this.

The studies have similarly influenced strategy and policy development internationally, including in Australia, India, China, Canada and the ASEAN region. For example, the same methods have been applied in research for Transport Canada in Victoria, for University of Auckland and Auckland Council, the Asian Development Bank in Delhi, and for Jinan, China (University of Oxford, Future of Cities Programme).