Prof. Arthur Petersen co-authored a study on Elfstedentocht's future, in the Climatic Change journal

A new study co-authored by UCL STEaPP’s Professor Arthur Petersen, and published in the highly regarded journal Climatic Change, reveals that while climate change continues to diminish the likelihood of the iconic Dutch Elfstedentocht skating marathon, there is still hope that future generations may yet experience this beloved tradition, but only if urgent global climate action is taken.

The Elfstedentocht (Eleven Cities Tour) is a 200km ice skating marathon held on natural ice in the northern Dutch province of Friesland. Once a fairly regular event, with races taking place every four years on average in the mid-20th century, the chances have since dropped significantly. According to the latest analysis by Petersen and colleagues at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the Winterswijk Skating Club, an Elfstedentocht now occurs only once every 14 to 32 years, depending on the model used.

In a statement marking the publication, Prof. Petersen commented:

“While there may still be hope for another Eleven City skating marathon to happen, the frequency of these events has decreased dramatically and will continue to decrease – how much, that will depend on the success of global action to curb net carbon emissions.”

The findings, released to media ahead of the article’s official publication on 16th April in Climatic Change, are already garnering significant media attention across the Netherlands and beyond.

This new study updates a previous landmark 2008 paper by Petersen and co-author Hans Visser, which first brought to light the climate-related decline in the event’s probability. Using refined climate models and a newly developed “Elfstedentocht indicator,” the research shows that unless global emissions are significantly curtailed, the event could become increasingly rare, and under high-emissions scenarios, nearly impossible.

Still, the research offers a note of optimism. With strong adherence to the Paris Climate Agreement and reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, conditions suitable for the marathon could persist until the end of this century. Moreover, the study highlights adaptive innovations, such as the specially designed Winterswijk rink, which can host natural ice marathons under more modest conditions.

The study, titled “The Likelihood of Holding Outdoor Skating Marathons: the past, present and future of a climate-change indicator, and a way to adapt”, appeared online in Climactic Change on 16 April 2025.