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Mathematical models, including AI models and digital twins as well as longer-established approaches, can be powerful tools for evidence-based policymaking. They represent the world in a simplified mathematical language, to help us make sense of complex problems and sometimes forecast future outcomes, in order to make better-informed decisions. Nevertheless, models have limitations and cannot represent all aspects of a problem. Accountable policymaking therefore requires an understanding of the potential harms of misusing models as well as the benefits of using them wisely.
This brief sets out four practical recommendations to help policymakers across a wide range of policy areas effectively capitalise on, and sidestep pitfalls of, using mathematical models for decision-making.
Funder and collaborators
Development of this brief was funded with support from the UKRI IAA funding, via UCL. This brief was produced in collaboration with the Academy for the Mathematical Sciences.
Acknowledgements
This policy brief is informed by discussions at an ICMS workshop (21-25 Oct 2024) and 14 interviews (27 Sep 2024 – 23 Oct 2024). The authors are grateful for all the participants’ time and valuable insights from their experiences working at the interface of modelling and public policy.
- Billy McGregor, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
- Chalapathi Keerthi
- Prof Eddie Gerba, Prudential Regulation Authority, Bank of England
- Prof Ian Strachan, University of Glasgow
- Jim Maltby, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory
- Laura Andrews, Welsh Government, Science Evidence and Advice Division
- Nicholas Whitehouse, Ministry of Justice
- Robin Cambery, Department for Transport
- Stephen Cragg, Transport Scotland
- Tim Gent, Gentle Consulting
- 4 anonymous interview participants
- 40 participants at Mathematical Models for Twenty-First Century Decisions: A Mathematics for Humanity workshop
Authors
Dr Erica Thompson is a UKRI Future Leaders Fellow and Principal Investigator on the project “From models to insight: Effective use of models to inform decisions” (MR/V024426/1)
Elise Pi is a Policy Adviser at the UCL Policy Impact Unit, www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/PIU
Vinesh Maguire Rajpaul is a Policy Analyst at the Academy for the Mathematical Sciences, https://www.acadmathsci.org.uk/
Output type
Policy brief