This page contains a list of Research Reports published by the Department of Statistical Science at University College London. The reports available for download are in PDF format.

Research Reports From 2017 | ||

327 | A description of the circumstances surrounding pharmaceutical approvals by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014 made without randomised control trial data | AJ Hatswell, G Baio and N Freemantle |

326 | A description of economic models constructed for pharmaceuticals granted a marketing authorisation without a randomised controlled trial by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014 | AJ Hatswell, N Freemantle and G Baio |

Research Reports From 2015 | ||

325 | Cross-validatory extreme value threshold selection and uncertainty with application to ocean storm severity | PJ Northrop, N Attalides and P Jonathan |

324 | A Unified Modeling Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence in Sub-Saharan African Countries | G Marra, R Radice, T Bärnighausen, SN Wood and ME McGovern |

Research Reports From 2014 | ||

323 | Posterior propriety in objective Bayesian extreme value analyses | PJ Northrop and N Attalides |

Research Reports From 2013 | ||

322 | Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter Trajectories | AM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and E Danioux |

321 | Copula Regression Spline Models for Binary Outcomes With Application in Health Care Utilization | R Radice, G Marra and M Wojtys |

319 | The Whittle Likelihood for Complex-Valued Time Series | AM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and JJ Early |

Research Reports From 2012 | ||

320 | Rejecting an empirical `person-based' formula for funding CCGs in favour of the farming analogue of one-year-ahead extrapolation | M Stone |

318 | Semiparametric estimation of the extremal index using block maxima | PJ Northrop |

317 | Maximum-likelihood estimation of lithospheric flexural rigidity, initial-loading fraction, and load correlation, under isotropy | FJ Simons and SC Olhede |

316 | Covariance of Replicated Modulated Cyclical Time Series | SC Olhede and H Ombao |

315 | A Penalized Likelihood Estimation Approach to Semiparametric Sample Selection Binary Response Modelling | G Marra and R Radice |

Research Reports From 2011 | ||

314 | Estimating a smooth baseline hazard function for the Cox model | P Royston |

313 | Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for Generalized Additive Model Components | G Marra and SN Wood |

312 | Further Development of Bartlett-Lewis model for fine-resolution rainfall | J Kaczmarska |

311 | Exploiting strength, discounting weakness: combining information from multiple climate simulators | RE Chandler |

310 | Learning the Ambiguity Surface | S Olhede |

Research Reports From 2010 | ||

309 | A Flexible Instrumental Variable Approach | G Marra and R Radice |

308 | Comparing latent class and dissimilarity based clustering for mixed type variables with application to social stratification | C Hennig and T Liao |

307 | External validation and updating of a prognostic survival model | P Royston, MKB Parmar and DG Altman |

306 | Modelling spatially-dependent non-stationary extremes with application to hurricane-induced wave heights | P Northrop and P Jonathan |

Research Reports From 2009 | ||

305 | On the Analytic Wavelet Transform | JM Lilly and SC Olhede |

304 | Mathematical Models and Reality - a Constructivist Perspective | C Hennig |

303 | Within-subject comparison of changes in a pretest-posttest design | C Hennig, D Müllensiefen and J Bargmann |

302 | Methods for merging Gaussian mixture components | C Hennig |

301 | Spending billions with t, F, R2 , RESET and a bootstrap | M Stone |

300 | Bivariate Instantaneous Frequency and Bandwidth | JM Lilly and SC Olhede |

Research Reports From 2008 | ||

299 | M Stone | |

298 | Valuing a Gas-Fired Power Plant: a Comparison of Ordinary Linear Models, Regime-Switching Approaches, and Models with Stochastic Volatility | S Heydari and A Siddiqui |

297 | How to Proceed with the Thorium Nuclear Technology: a Real Options Analysis | A Siddiqui and S-E Fleten |

296 | Risk Analysis of Interruptible Load Contracts | P Rocha and A Siddiqui |

295 | A decision-theoretic framework for the application of cost-effectiveness analysis in regulatory processes | G Baio and P Russo |

294 | A framework for interpreting climate model outputs | NA Leith and RE Chandler |

293 | Estimation of Ambiguity Functions With Limited Spread | H Hindberg and SC Olhede |

292 | Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Health Economics | G Baio and AP Dawid |

291 | Adjusting for patients’ clinical case mix explains variation in general practice prescribing | C O'Sullivan, RZ Omar, I Petersen, A Islam and AF Majeed |

290 | Multiscale Inference for High-Frequency Data | A Sykulski, SC Olhede and GA Pavliotis |

289 | On the Design of Optimal Analytic /.Wavelets | JM Lilly and SC Olhede |

Research Reports From 2007 | ||

288 | Modelling data observed irregularly over space and regularly in time | C Dimitriou-Fakalou |

287 | Moments Estimators for Moving-Average Models on Zd | C Dimitriou-Fakalou |

286 | Modifed Gaussian Likelihood Estimators for ARMA Models on Zd | C Dimitriou-Fakalou |

285 | Transmission Investment Timing and Sizing under Uncertainty | A Siddiqui and H Gupta |

284 | Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty | A Siddiqui and C Marnay |

283 | Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty | A Siddiqui and K Maribu |

282 | Optimal Technology Selection and Operation of Microgrids in Commercial Buildings? | C Marnay, G Venkataramanan, M Stadler, A Siddiqui, R Firestone and B Chandran |

281 | Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks for Paternity Cases with Allelic Dependencies | AB Hepler and BS Weir |

280 | Measurement error in binary regression | T Fearn, DC Hill and SC Darby |

279 | Fundamentals of statistical causality | AP Dawid |

278 | On predictive probability matching priors | TJ Sweeting |

277 | Point process models of rainfall: Developments for fine-scale structure | P Cowpertwait, V Isham, and Christian Onof |

276 | Some thoughts about the design of loss functions | C Hennig and M Kutlukaya |

275 | Object-Oriented Graphical Representations of Complex Patterns of Evidence | AB Hepler, AP Dawid and V Leucari |

274 | Estimation across multiple models with application to Bayesian computing and software development | RJ Stevens and TJ Sweeting |

273 | Design of Dissimilarity Measures: a New Dissimilarity between Species Distribution Areas? | C Hennig and B Hausdorf |

Research Reports From 2006 | ||

272 | Dissolution point and isolation robustness: robustness criteria for general cluster analysis methods | C Hennig |

271 | Cluster-wise assessment of cluster stability | C Hennig |

270 | The game of red and blue revisited: propensities, subjective probabilities, and the goodness-of-fit paradox | C Hennig |

269 | Counterfactuals, Hypotheticals and Potential Responses: A Philosophical Examination of Statistical Causality | AP Dawid |

268 | The geometry of proper scoring rules | AP Dawid |

267 | Fathoming the PCT funding formula with Excel graphics (Updated: 5/5/06) | M Stone |

266 | Asymmetric Separation for Local Independence Graphs | V Didelez |

265 | Direct and Indirect Effects of Sequential Treatments | V Didelez, AP Dawid and S Geneletti |

264 | Probability and Evidence | J Mortera and AP Dawid |

263 | Stochastic Models for Epidemics | V. Isham |

Research Reports From 2005 | ||

262 | Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies | AP Dawid and V Didelez |

261 | The Geometry of Decision Theory | AP Dawid and SL Lauritzen |

260 | Graphical Models for Composable Finite Markov Processes | V Didelez |

259 | Semiparametric Estimation of the Extremal Index using Block Maxima | PJ Northrop |

258 | Graphical Models for Marked Point Processes based on Local Independence | V Didelez |

257 | Likelihood-based inference for the ratios of regression coefficients in linear models | M Ghosh, GS Datta, D Kim and TJ Sweeting |

256 | Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problems | A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and P. Vicard |

255 | Inference for clustered data using the independence log-likelihood | R. E. Chandler and S. Bate |

254 | A PCT funding formula for England based on faith may be wasting billions | M. Stone and J. Galbraith |

253 | Nonsubjective priors via predictive relative entropy regret | T. J. Sweeting, G. S. Datta and M. Ghosh |

252 | Probability Matching Priors | G. S. Datta and T. J. Sweeting |

251 | A point process model for rainfall with truncated Gaussian rain cells | P. J. Northrop and T. M. Stone |

Research Reports From 2004 | ||

250 | Statistics on Trial | A. P. Dawid |

249 | Estimation of Mutation Rates from Paternity Cases Using a Bayesian Network | P. Vicard, A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and S. L. Lauritzen |

248 | Accumulating Evidence of Malfunctioning Government Machinery | M. Stone |

247 | Spatial-temporal Rainfall Simulation using Generalized Linear Models | C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and H.S. Wheater |

246 | Application of a predictive distribution formula to Bayesian computation for incomplete data models | T.J. Sweeting and S. Kharroubi |

245 | Adjudication of the Radio 4 Today Programme Speed Tribunal | M. Stone |

244 | Statistics and the Law | A. P. Dawid |

243 | Probability and Statistics in the Law | A. P. Dawid |

242 | How Not to Fund Hospital and Community Health Services in England (and How One Might) | M. Stone and J. Galbraith |

241 | On the Implementation of Local Probability Matching Priors for Interest Parameters | T.J. Sweeting |

240 | Stochastic and Spatial Dynamics of Nematode Parasites in Farmed Ruminants | S.J. Cornell, V.S. Isham and B.T. Grenfell |

Research Reports From 2003 | ||

239 | Accurate Signal Estimation Near Discontinuities | T. R. Downie |

238 | Paradox, simple inconsistency, or serious pathology? Comment on `Conditioning as disintegration' by Chang & Pollard | M. Stone, A. P. Dawid and J. V. Zidek |

237 | Which Likelihood Ratio? (Comment on "Why the effect of prior odds should accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence", by Ronald Meester and Marjan Sjerps) | A. P. Dawid |

236 | Simulation and downscaling models for potential evaporation | C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham, C. Annoni and H.S. Wheater |

235 | Prediction of future migration flows to the UK and Germany (Chapter 6 of Home Office Online Report 25/03, www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/rdsolr2503.pdf): Technical exercise, honest study, or convenient obfuscation? | M. Stone |

234 | A Statistical Treatment of Biases Affecting the Estimation of Mutation Rates | P. Vicard and A. P. Dawid |

233 | Some new formulae for posterior expectations and Bartlett corrections | T. J. Sweeting and S. A. Kharroubi |

232 | On the use of generalized linear models for interpreting climate variability | R. E. Chandler |

231 | Demographic explanation of a remarkable enhancement of repopulation hemopoiesis by heterozygous connexin43/45 stem cells seeded on wildtype connexin43 stroma | M. Rosendaal and M. Stone |

230 | Collapsibility of graphical CG-regression models | V. Didelez and D. Edwards |

Research Reports From 2002 | ||

229 | Ultimate extinction of the promiscuous bisexual Galton-Watson metapopulation | Stephen J. Cornell and Valerie S. Isham |

228 | Probability, Causality and the Empirical World: A Bayes-de Finetti-Popper-Borel Synthesis (published version) | A.P. Dawid |

227 | GLIMCLIM: Generalized Linear Modelling for Daily Climate Time Series | R.E. Chandler s |

226 | An object-oriented Bayesian network for estimating mutation rates | A. P. Dawid |

225 | Probabilistic Expert Systems for DNA Mixture Profiling | J. Mortera, A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen |

224 | Floods: Some Probabilistic and Statistical Approaches | D.R. Cox, V.S.Isham and P.J.Northrop |

223 | Game Theory, Maximum Entropy, Minimum Discrepancy, and Robust Bayesian Decision Theory (published version) | P. D. Grünwald and A. P. Dawid |

Research Reports From 2001 | ||

222 | A Bayesian Network in Intensive Care: a fully explanatory model for care evaluation | D. Luciani |

221 | Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference | A. P. Dawid |

220 | Non-Fatherhood or Mutation? A Probabilistic Approach to Parental Exclusion in Paternity Testing | A. Philip Dawid, Julia Mortera and Vincenzo L. Pascali |

219 | Bayes's Theorem And Weighing Evidence by Juries | A. P. Dawid |

Research Reports From 2000 | ||

218 | Consistency in Misspecified Models | Kostas Skouras and A. Philip Dawid |

217 | Statistical modelling of thermal annealing of fission tracks in Durango apatite | G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith |

216 | Point estimation for log-linear models where one variable is subject to non-ignorable non-response | P. S. Clarke |

215 | Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers | A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera, V. L. Pascali and D. van Boxel |

214 | Models for macroparasite aggregation: the role of the transmission process | Julian Herbert and Valerie Isham |

213 | Causal Inference Using Influence Diagrams: the Problem of Partial Compliance | A. P. Dawid |

212 | Separoids: A general framework for conditional independence and irrelevance | A. P. Dawid |

211 | Comment on Stockmarr's "Likelihood Ratios for Evaluating DNA Evidence, When the Suspect is Found Through a Database Search" | A. P. Dawid |

210 | Compatible Prior Distributions | A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen |

209 | Some variations on variation independence | A. P. Dawid |

208 | Questions of efficiency estimation in public services: is the state of the art really "State of The Art"? | M. Stone |

207 | Distinguishing dose populations in sediment mixtures: a test of single-grain optical dating procedures using mixtures of laboratory-dosed quartz | R.G. Roberts, R.F. Galbraith, J.M. Olley, G.M. Laslett and H. Yoshida |

206 | Estimating the age range of optical dating using single `supergrains' of quartz | H. Yoshida, R.G. Roberts, J. M. Olley, G.M. Laslett, and R.F. Galbraith |

205 | Disease surveillance and data collection issues in epidemic modelling | P.J. Solomon and V.S. Isham |

204 | Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data | H.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, C. Onof, R.E. Chandler, P.J. Northrop, P. Guiblin, S.M. Bate, D.R. Cox and D. Koutsoyiannis |

Research Reports From 1999 | ||

203 | Model Metaselection | X. de Luna and K. Skouras |

202 | The Trouble with Bayes Factors | A.P. Dawid |

201 | Alternative mathematics for ion exchange modelling and data analysis | M.Stone |

Research Reports From 1998 | ||

200 | Strong consistency in nonlinear stochastic regression models | K. Skouras |

199 | Conditional products: an alternative approach to conditional independence | A. P. Dawid and M. Studeny |

198 | Simulation-based robust estimation of ARMA models | X. de Luna and M.G. Genton |

197 | Early statisticians: Sir Frederick Morton Eden (1766-1809) and Florence Nightingale (1820-1910) | M. Stone |

196 | A point process model for rainfall with dependent duration and intensity | Anastasia Kakou |

195 | Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall - a case study from the West of Ireland II. Modelling of rainfall amounts on wet days | Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater |

194 | Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall - a case study from the West of Ireland I. Preliminary analysis and modelling of rainfall occurrence | Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater |

193 | Stochastic host-parasite interaction models | Julian Herbert and Valerie Isham |

192 | Hierarchical Models for DNA Profiling Using Heterogeneous Databases | A. Philip Dawid and John Pueschel |

191 | Influence of light level on the incidence of road casualties and the associated effect of summertime clock changes | M. Hazelton, M. Stone and J. Broughton |

Research Reports From 1997 | ||

190 | Bayes factors for variance component models | Donna K. Pauler, Jonathan C. Wakefield and Robert E. Kass |

189 | Modelling issues in forensic inference | A.P. Dawid |

188 | Causal inference without counterfactuals | A.P. Dawid |

187 | A decision theory approach to fitness for pupose in analytical measurement | T. Fearn, S.A. Fisher, M. Thompson and S. Ellison |

186 | Spatio-temporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysis | R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and P.J. Northrop |

185 | The Schwarz Criterion and Related Methods for Normal Linear Models | Donna K. Pauler |

184 | Bayesian image analysis and the disaggregation of rainfall | R.E. Chandler, N.G. Mackay, H.S.Wheater and C. Onof |

183 | An optimal local bandwidth selector for kernel density estimation | Martin L. Hazelton |

182 | Policies for Poverty from an Analytical Aristocrat | Mervyn Stone |

181 | Forensic Identification with Imperfect Evidence | A. P. Dawid and J. Mortera |

180 | Absolute continuity of Markov chains | Kostas Skouras |

179 | Bayesian updating and the time-preference reversal effect | Peter D. Sozou |

178 | Statistical Modelling and Analysis of Spatial Patterns | D.R. Cox, V.S. Isham and Paul Northrop |

177 | A clustered spatial-temporal model of rainfall | Paul Northrop |

176 | Spatial-temporal rainfall fields: modelling and statistical aspects | H.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, D.R. Cox, R.E. Chandler, A. Kakou, P.J. Northrop, L.Oh, C. Onof and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe |

Research Reports From 1996 | ||

175 | Nonconjugate Bayesian regression on many variables | B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid |

174 | Stochastic spatial-temporal models for rain | D.R. Cox and V.S. Isham |

173 | A note on analytical solutions to the Whittle likelihood equation | Richard E. Chandler |

172 | Critique of E.T.Jaynes's "Paradoxes of Probability Theory" | A.P.Dawid, M.Stone and J.V.Zidek |

171 | Prequential Probability: Principles and Properties | A.P. Dawid and V.G. Vovk |

170 | Using a graphical method to take account of dependencies when evaluating complicated patterns of evidence | A.P. Dawid and I.W. Evett |

169 | Detecting adulteratism of Basmati rice by the analysis of mixtures | T. Fearn |

168 | Discrimination with many variables | P.J. Brown, T. Fearn and M.S. Haque |

167 | Coherent criteria for optimal experimental design | A.P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani |

166 | Site 73 in hypervariable region II of the human mitochondrial genome and the origin of European populations. | H.M. Wilkinson-Herbots |

165 | The structured coalescent | H.M. Herbots |

164 | The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part II) | H.M. Herbots |

163 | The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part I) | H.M. Herbots |

162 | Optimal rates for local bandwidth selection | M. Hazelton |

161 | Efficient cross-validation of reduced rank regression and JCRO | R.J. Brooks and M. Stone |

160 | On Efficient Point Prediction Systems | K. Skouras and A.P. Dawid |

159 | On Efficient Probability Forecasting Systems | K. Skouras and A.P. Dawid |

158 | The second-order spectral analysis of spatial-temporal rainfall models | Richard E. Chandler |

157 | Conditional Independence | A. P. Dawid |

Research Reports From 1995 | ||

156 | Statistical modelling of thermal annesting of fission tracks | G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith |

155 | Analysis of Fission track counts | R.F. Galbraith and G. Laslett |

154 | Renewal models and renewal-type equations as Functionals | K. Politis |

153 | Connectedness conditions for the convergence of the Gibbs sampler | J.P. Hubert, C.P. Robert and C. Goutis |

152 | Standardizing Spectrophotometers | T. Fearn |

151 | Comparison of Full Bayes and Bayes-Least Squares Criteria for Normal Discrimination | B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid |

150 | Confidence bounds for the adjustment coefficient | S.M. Pitts, R. Grubel and P. Embrechts |

149 | Second derivative functional regression with applications to NIR Spectroscopy | C. Goutis |

148 | Spatial-temporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysis | R. Chandler, V. Isham, A. Kakou and P. Northrop |

147 | Monte Carlo inference for a model of carbon fibre strength | M. Hazelton |

146 | Bandwidth selection for local density estimators | M. Hazelton |

145 | Improved Monte Carlo inference for models with additive error | M. Hazelton |

144 | Comments on "The roles of conditioning in inference" by N. Reid | A. P. Dawid and C. Goutis |

143 | Modelling mixed fission trackages: a cube root truncated normal model | R.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett |

142 | A spectral method for estimating parameters in rainfall models | Richard E. Chandler |

141 | Prequential Analysis | A. P. Dawid |

Research Reports from 1994 | ||

140 | Partial least squares regression on smooth factors | C. Goutis and T. Fearn |

139 | Proper Measures of Discrepancy Uncertainty and Dependence with Applications to Predictive Experimental Design [revised] [original] | A. P. Dawid |

138 | On Compatible priors for Baysian Networks | R. Cowell |

137 | Model choice in generalized linear models: a Bayesian approach via Kullback-Leibler projections | C. Goutis and C.P. Robert |

136 | Elementary Watson! Coherent Analysis of Forensic Evidence | A. P. Dawid and J. Mortera |

135 | A comparison of sequential learning methods for incomplete data | R. G. Cowell, A. P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani |

134 | Stochastic Models of Host-Macroparasite Interaction | Valerie Isham |

133 | Distributive Block Structures: Mathematical Properties | A.P. Dawid |

132 | Decision networks: A formulation for multistage decision problems. | Robert G. Cowell |

131 | A note on nonregular likelihood functions in heterosecdastic regression models. | Adam Crisp and Jim Burridge |

130 | The efficient cross-validation of principal components applied to principal component regression | Bart Mertens, Tom Fearn and Michael Thompson |

Research Reports From 1993 | ||

129 | Hybrid Propagation in Junction Trees | A.P. Dawid, U. Kjaerulff and S.L. Lauritzen |

128 | Stochastic Models of Precipitation | D.R. Cox and Valerie Isham |

127 | Unique redescending t M-Estimates for the Linear Regression Model | Adam Crisp and Jim Burridge |

126 | Partial Least Squares Algorithm Yields Shrinkage Estimators | Constantinos Goutis |

125 | Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the presence of Extra-Poisson Variation | Hassan Johaadien and Constantinos Goutis |

124 | Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple Predictands | Rodney Brooks and Mervyn Stone |

123 | Taking Prediction Seriously | A.P. Dawid |

122 | Estimation in Linear Models using the back Propagation Algorithm | K. Skouras, C. Goutis and M.J. Bramson |

121 | Frequentist Post-Data Inference | Constantinos Goutis and George Casella |

120 | Choice among Hypotheses using Estimation Criteria | Constantinos Goutis and Christian P. Robert |

119 | D-Optimal Designs for Generalised Linear Models with Variance Proportional to the Square of the Mean | Jim Burridge and Paola Sebastiani |

118 | Analysing Unreplicated Factorials | Jorge Olguin |

117 | Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests of fit when parameters are estimated from order statistics | M. Taghavi-Khonsary |

116 | Some applications of radial plots | R.F. Galbraith |

115 | The Island Problem: Coherent use of Identification Evidence | A.P. Dawid |

114 | Statistical models for mixed ages in fission track analysis | R.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett |

113 | Assessing Evidence in Multiple Hypotheses | Constantinos Goutis, George Casella and Martin T. Wells |

Research Reports From 1992 | ||

112 | Coherent Combination of Experts' Opinions | A.P. Dawid, M.H. DeGroot and J. Mortera |

111 | Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance | Susan M. Pitts |

110 | Some applications of the fast Fourier transform algorithm in insurance mathematics | Paul Embrechts, Rudolf Grubel and Susan M. Pitts |

109 | Calculating moments of decomposable functions in Bayesian networks | R.G. Cowell |

108 | The Dilation Phenomenon in Robust Bayesian Inference by Larry Wasserman and Teddy Seidenfeld | Constantinos Goutis |

107 | A note on the uniqueness of M-estimators in robust regression | A. Crisp and Jim Burridge |

106 | The analysis of projected fission track lengths | G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith |

105 | Flat or Natural? A Note on the Choice of Calibration Samples. | T. Fearn |

104 | Selection Paradoxes of Bayesian Inference | A.P. Dawid |

103 | Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems | D.J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid Steffen L. Lauritzen, Robert G. Cowell |

102 | Statistical Aspects of Chaos: A Review | Valerie Isham |

101 | A Graphical Method for solving a Decision Analysis problem | Constantinos Goutis |

100 | A repeat of the ""Benveniste"" experiment: statistical analysis | Jim Burridge |

99 | Relationships between post data accuracy measures. | George Casella and Constantinos Goutis |

98 | Nonparametric estimation of the stationary waiting time distribution function for the GI/G/1 queue | Susan M. Pitts |

97 | Statistical Aspects of pre-operative screening for anaesthetic allergies | Constantinos Goutis |

Research Reports From 1991 | ||

96 | Asymptotic property of a Bayesian discrimination problem | B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid |

95 | Sequential model criticism in probabilistic expert systems | R.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid, D.J. Spiegelhalter |

94 | Shrinking Calibrations | T. Fearn |

93 | Graphical Modelling of Data from Whitehall II | Ian White |

92 | Stochastic Models for Epidemics with Special Reference to Aids | Valerie Isham |

91 | Optimal Designs for Generalized Linear Models | J. Burridge and P. Sebastiani |

90 | Bayesian estimation methods for contingency tables. | Constantinos Goutis |

89 | Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system | R.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid |

88 | Applications of a General Propagation Algorithm for Probabilistic Expert Systems | A.P. Dawid |

87 | A Bayesian Expert System for the Analysis of an Adverse Drug Reaction | R.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T. Hutchinson, D.J. Spiegelhalter |

86 | BAIES - A Probabilistic Expert System Shell with Qualitative and Quantitative Learning | Robert Cowell |

84 | Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple Predictands | Mervyn Stone and Rodney Brooks |

83 | Conjugate Bayes Discrimination with Infinitely Many Variables | A.P. Dawid and B.Q. Fang |

82 | Prequential Analysis, Stochastic Complexity and Bayesian Inference | A.P. Dawid |

80 | Unique and Consistent M-Estimators for Linear Models and Symmetry Heavy-tailed Error Distributions | Jim Burridge |

79 | Recovering extra-binomial variation | Constantinos Goutis |

Research Reports From 1990 | ||

78 | Increasing the Confidence in Student's t Interval. | Constantinos Goutis and George Casella |

77 | A functional approach to the stationary waiting time and idle period distributions of the GI/G/I queue | Rudolf Grübel and Susan M. Pitts |

76 | Assessing the variability of stochastic epidemics | Valerie Isham |

75 | Generic Organisational Networks for the Analysis of Drug Safety | R.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T.A. Hutchinson, S. Roden and D.J. Spiegelhalter |

74 | Foundations of Probability (Article for ""Encyclopaedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences"") | A.P. Dawid |

73 | Lumbricus Terrestris: A Game for Teaching Resource-Limited Statistical Society. | G. Brian Newman |

72 | Box-Cox Transformations and the Taguchi Method: an Alternative Analysis of a Taguchi Case Study | T. Fearn |

71 | An Application of Box-Jenkins Methodology to the Control of Gluten Addition in a Flour Mill. | T. Fearn and P.I. Maris |

70 | Ranges of Posterior Measures for Some Classes of Priors with Specified Moments | Constantinos Goutis |

69 | Probabilistic causality assessment after a suspected adverse drug reaction: a case study in Bayesian network modelling. | David J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid, Tom A. Hutchinson, R.G. Cowell |

68 | Comments on the use of the back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV infection and Aids | Valerie Isham |

67 | Fisherian Inference in Likelihood and Prequential Frames of Reference | A.P. Dawid |

Research Reports From 1989 | ||

66 | Comment on Joshi's ""Counter-example against the likelihood Principle"" | A.P. Dawid, T. Fearn and M. Stone |

65 | Markov Distributions, Hyper Markov Laws and Meta Markov Models on Decomposable Graphs, with Applications to Bayesian Learning in Expert Systems | A.P. Dawid and S.L. Lauritzen |

64 | A Stratified Binomial Marker Model for Bone-Marrow Repopulation Experiments | M. Stone and D. Harrison |

Research Reports From 1988 | ||

63 | Independence Properties of Directed Markov Fields | S.L. Lauritzen, A.P. Dawid, B.N. Larsen, H.G. Leimer |

62 | Continuum Regression: Cross-validated, Sequentially-constructed Prediction embracing Ordinary Least Squares, Partial Least Squares, and Principal Components Regression | M. Stone and R.J. Brooks |

61 | Prequential Tests of Model Fit | F. Seillier, T.J. Sweeting and A.P. Dawid |

60 | Moment-Based Estimating Equations, Mean-Variance Relationships and Exponential Dispersion Models | J. Burridge |

Research Reports From 1987 | ||

59 | Functional Models, Fiducial Prediction and Semi-Bayesian Inference | A.P. Dawid |

58 | Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection and Aids: A Review | Valerie Isham |

57 | On testing the validity of probability forecasts | R.M.L.G. Seillier |

56 | The Infinite Regress and its Conjugate Analysis | A.P. Dawid |

55 | The Population Genealogy of the Infinitely-Many Neutral Alleles Model | Peter Donnelly and Simon Tavare |

Research Reports From 1986 | ||

54 | Notes on Linear Sufficiency in the General Linear Model | M. Stone |

53 | Symmetry Analysis of the Mixed Model | A.P. Dawid |

52 | Isobolic Determination of Linear and 'Ratio-Linear' Parameters | M. Stone |

51 | A Bayes, Sweep-Operational Construction for Rao's Unified Theory of Linear Estimation (Short Title: Construction for Unified Least-Squares) | M. Stone and J.L. Wang |

50 | Symmetry Models and Hypotheses for Structured Data Layouts | A.P. Dawid |

49 | Graphical Display of Estimates having Differing Standard errors | R.F. Galbraith |

48 | Mean-variance Relationships, Generalised Linear Models and GLIM | J. Burridge |

47 | The difficulty about conjunction | A.P. Dawid |

46 | Prequential Data Analysis | A.P. Dawid |

45 | Inter-Particle Correlation in Death Processes with application to Compartmental models. | Frank Ball and Peter Donnelly |

44 | Stochastic Monotonicity in a reinforcement-depletion compartmental Urn Model | Peter Donnelly |

Research Reports From 1985 | ||

43 | Marked Point Processes and Their Correlation's | Valerie Isham |

42 | Prequential Assessment of Discrete Probability Forecasts | Françoise Seillier |

41 | Statistical Analysis of C.W. Naeser's Fish Canyon Zircon Data | R.F. Galbraith |

40 | Ubles or Blues? | Mervyn Stone |

39 | Coordinate-Free multivariable statistics: From Halmos to Gauss to Bayes | Mervyn Stone |

38 | Asymptotic Inference for Eigenvectors of Covariance and Correlation Matrices | T. Kollo |

37 | The Virtual Waiting Time and Related Processes | D.R. Cox and Valerie Isham |

Research Reports From 1984 | ||

36 | A Statistical Analysis of some 2-players Games | J.Q. Smith |

35 | Decomposition and Bayesian analysis of invariant normal linear models. | G. Consonni and A.P. Dawid |

34 | Some Characterizations of Stochastic transformations relevant to models for experiments | M. Stone and B. Johnston |

33 | Optimal allocation for Bayesian inference about an odds ratio | R.J. Brooks |

Research Reports From 1983 | ||

32 | Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow … The Prequential Approach to Statistical Theory | A.P. Dawid |

31 | Invariant Normal Bayesian Linear Models and Experimental Designs | G. Consonni and A.P. Dawid |

29 | Cross-Validated Composition Determination in Nuclear Analysis | C.M. Brien and M. Stone |

28 | On Jackknife, Cross-Validatory and Classical Methods of Estimating a proportion with batches of different sizes. | C.C. Frangos and M. Stone |

27 | Statistical Reasoning | M. Stone |

26 | Catastrophes in Statistical Models and Decision Theory: A way of Seeing. | J.Q. Smith |

25 | A dynamic Forecasting Model for a General Class of Discontinuous Time Series | R.G. Gathercole and J.Q. Smith |

24 | Approximate likelihood ratio tests in the analysis of beta-binomial data. | R.J. Brooks |

23 | Variance-Covariance Modelling for Chromosome Marker Data with Application to Haemopoiesis | M. Stone |

22 | Decomposition of Statistical Problems by means of Invariance Mathematical Tools and Results | G. Consonni |

21 | On the Relative Efficiency of Censored Reliability Studies | R.J. Brooks |

20 | Fitting Generalised Linear Models in the Analysis of Fission Track Counts | R.J. Brooks |

19 | On Statistical Estimation in Fission Track Dating | R.F. Galbraith |

18 | Exploratory studies of some Non-Local Non-Linear Design Criteria | Mervyn Stone and Julie Morris |

Research Reports From 1982 | ||

17 | Bivarate Markov Point Processes - Some Approximations | Valerie Isham |

16 | Forecasting accident claims for an Assurance Company | J.Q Smith |

15 | Point Processes and the Markov Property | Valerie Isham |

14 | Objective Probability Forecasts | A.P. Dawid |

13 | Probability, Symmetry and Frequency | A.P. Dawid |

12 | A Bivariate Spatial Point Process of Ants Nests | R.D. Harkness and Valerie Isham |

11 | Statistical Analysis of some Fission Track Counts and Neutron Fluence Measurements. | R.F. Galbraith |

9 | Invariance and Independence in Multivariate Distribution Theory | A.P. Dawid |

Research Reports From 1981 | ||

8 | Principles of Interactive Forecasting | J.Q. Smith and R.B. Cathercole |

7 | Catastrophies and Geometric Sufficiency | J.Q. Smith |

6 | Fiducial Probability | M. Stone |

5 | A General Statistical Model for Clone/Tissue studies using X-Chromosome Inactivation Data | M. Stone |

4 | Intersubjective Statistical Models | A.P. Dawid |

3 | Statistical Inference | A.P. Dawid |

2 | Invariant Prior Distributions | A.P. Dawid |

1 | The Functional-Model Basis of Fiducial Inference | A.P. Dawid and M. Stone |