Statistical Science


Research Reports

This page contains a list of Research Reports published by the Department of Statistical Science at University College London. The reports available for download are in PDF format.

 Research Reports From 2017 
327A description of the circumstances surrounding pharmaceutical approvals by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014 made without randomised control trial dataAJ Hatswell, G Baio and N Freemantle
326A description of economic models constructed for pharmaceuticals granted a marketing authorisation without a randomised controlled trial by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014AJ Hatswell, N Freemantle and G Baio
 Research Reports From 2015 
325Cross-validatory extreme value threshold selection and uncertainty with application to ocean storm severityPJ Northrop, N Attalides and P Jonathan
324A Unified Modeling Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence in Sub-Saharan African CountriesG Marra, R Radice, T Bärnighausen, SN Wood and ME McGovern
 Research Reports From 2014 
323Posterior propriety in objective Bayesian extreme
value analyses
PJ Northrop and N Attalides
 Research Reports From 2013 
322Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter TrajectoriesAM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and E Danioux
321Copula Regression Spline Models for Binary Outcomes With Application in Health Care UtilizationR Radice, G Marra and M Wojtys
319The Whittle Likelihood for Complex-Valued Time SeriesAM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and JJ Early
 Research Reports From 2012 
320Rejecting an empirical `person-based' formula for funding CCGs in favour of the farming analogue of one-year-ahead extrapolationM Stone
318Semiparametric estimation of the extremal index using block maximaPJ Northrop
317Maximum-likelihood estimation of lithospheric flexural rigidity, initial-loading fraction, and load correlation, under isotropyFJ Simons and SC Olhede
316Covariance of Replicated Modulated Cyclical Time
SC Olhede and H Ombao
315A Penalized Likelihood Estimation Approach to Semiparametric Sample Selection Binary Response ModellingG Marra and R Radice
 Research Reports From 2011 
314Estimating a smooth baseline hazard function for the Cox modelP Royston
313 Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for Generalized Additive Model ComponentsG Marra and SN Wood
312Further Development of Bartlett-Lewis model for fine-resolution rainfallJ Kaczmarska
311Exploiting strength, discounting weakness: combining information from multiple climate simulatorsRE Chandler
310Learning the Ambiguity SurfaceS Olhede
 Research Reports From 2010 
309 A Flexible Instrumental Variable Approach G Marra and R Radice
308Comparing latent class and dissimilarity based clustering for mixed type variables with application to social stratificationC Hennig and T Liao
307External validation and updating of a prognostic survival modelP Royston, MKB Parmar and DG Altman
306Modelling spatially-dependent non-stationary extremes with application to hurricane-induced wave heightsP Northrop and P Jonathan
 Research Reports From 2009 
305On the Analytic Wavelet TransformJM Lilly and SC Olhede
304Mathematical Models and Reality - a Constructivist PerspectiveC Hennig
303Within-subject comparison of changes in a pretest-posttest designC Hennig, D Müllensiefen and J Bargmann
302Methods for merging Gaussian mixture componentsC Hennig
301Spending billions with t, F, R2 , RESET and a bootstrapM Stone
300Bivariate Instantaneous Frequency and BandwidthJM Lilly and SC Olhede
 Research Reports From 2008 

Going to the Pictures: Eigenvector as Fixed Point

[Fig 1] [Fig 2] [Fig 3] [Fig 4]

M Stone
298Valuing a Gas-Fired Power Plant: a Comparison of Ordinary Linear Models, Regime-Switching Approaches, and Models with Stochastic VolatilityS Heydari and A Siddiqui
297How to Proceed with the Thorium Nuclear Technology: a Real Options AnalysisA Siddiqui and S-E Fleten
296Risk Analysis of Interruptible Load ContractsP Rocha and A Siddiqui
295A decision-theoretic framework for the application of cost-effectiveness analysis in regulatory processesG Baio and P Russo
294A framework for interpreting climate model outputsNA Leith and RE Chandler
293Estimation of Ambiguity Functions With Limited SpreadH Hindberg and SC Olhede
292Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Health EconomicsG Baio and AP Dawid
291Adjusting for patients’ clinical case mix explains variation in general practice prescribingC O'Sullivan, RZ Omar, I Petersen, A Islam and AF Majeed
290Multiscale Inference for High-Frequency DataA Sykulski, SC Olhede and GA Pavliotis
289On the Design of Optimal Analytic /.WaveletsJM Lilly and SC Olhede
 Research Reports From 2007 
288Modelling data observed irregularly over space and regularly in timeC Dimitriou-Fakalou
287Moments Estimators for Moving-Average Models on ZdC Dimitriou-Fakalou
286Modifed Gaussian Likelihood Estimators for ARMA Models on ZdC Dimitriou-Fakalou
285Transmission Investment Timing and Sizing under UncertaintyA Siddiqui and H Gupta
284Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under UncertaintyA Siddiqui and C Marnay
283Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under UncertaintyA Siddiqui and K Maribu
282Optimal Technology Selection and Operation of Microgrids in Commercial Buildings?C Marnay, G Venkataramanan, M Stadler, A Siddiqui, R Firestone and B Chandran
281Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks for Paternity Cases with Allelic DependenciesAB Hepler and BS Weir
280Measurement error in binary regressionT Fearn, DC Hill and SC Darby
279Fundamentals of statistical causalityAP Dawid
278On predictive probability matching priorsTJ Sweeting
277Point process models of rainfall: Developments for fine-scale structureP Cowpertwait, V Isham, and Christian Onof
276Some thoughts about the design of loss functionsC Hennig and M Kutlukaya
275Object-Oriented Graphical Representations of Complex Patterns of EvidenceAB Hepler, AP Dawid and V Leucari
274Estimation across multiple models with application to Bayesian computing and software developmentRJ Stevens and TJ Sweeting
273Design of Dissimilarity Measures: a New Dissimilarity between Species Distribution Areas?C Hennig and B Hausdorf
 Research Reports From 2006 
272Dissolution point and isolation robustness: robustness criteria for general cluster analysis methodsC Hennig
271Cluster-wise assessment of cluster stabilityC Hennig
270The game of red and blue revisited: propensities, subjective probabilities, and the goodness-of-fit paradoxC Hennig
269Counterfactuals, Hypotheticals and Potential Responses: A Philosophical Examination of Statistical CausalityAP Dawid
268The geometry of proper scoring rulesAP Dawid

Fathoming the PCT funding formula with Excel graphics (Updated: 5/5/06)

[PCTnamefinder.xls] [PCTgrapher.xls]

M Stone
266Asymmetric Separation for Local Independence GraphsV Didelez
265Direct and Indirect Effects of Sequential TreatmentsV Didelez, AP Dawid and S Geneletti
264Probability and EvidenceJ Mortera and AP Dawid
263Stochastic Models for EpidemicsV. Isham
 Research Reports From 2005 
262Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategiesAP Dawid and V Didelez
261The Geometry of Decision TheoryAP Dawid and SL Lauritzen
260Graphical Models for Composable Finite Markov ProcessesV Didelez
259Semiparametric Estimation of the Extremal Index using Block MaximaPJ Northrop
258Graphical Models for Marked Point Processes based on Local IndependenceV Didelez
257Likelihood-based inference for the ratios of regression coefficients in linear modelsM Ghosh, GS Datta, D Kim and TJ Sweeting
256Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problemsA. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and P. Vicard
255Inference for clustered data using the independence log-likelihoodR. E. Chandler and S. Bate
254A PCT funding formula for England based on faith may be wasting billionsM. Stone and J. Galbraith
253Nonsubjective priors via predictive relative entropy regretT. J. Sweeting, G. S. Datta and M. Ghosh
252Probability Matching PriorsG. S. Datta and T. J. Sweeting
251A point process model for rainfall with truncated Gaussian rain cellsP. J. Northrop and T. M. Stone
 Research Reports From 2004 
250Statistics on Trial A. P. Dawid
249Estimation of Mutation Rates from Paternity Cases Using a Bayesian Network P. Vicard, A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and S. L. Lauritzen
248Accumulating Evidence of Malfunctioning Government Machinery M. Stone
247Spatial-temporal Rainfall Simulation using Generalized Linear Models C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and H.S. Wheater
246Application of a predictive distribution formula to Bayesian computation for incomplete data models T.J. Sweeting and S. Kharroubi
245Adjudication of the Radio 4 Today Programme Speed Tribunal M. Stone
244Statistics and the Law A. P. Dawid
243Probability and Statistics in the Law A. P. Dawid
242How Not to Fund Hospital and Community Health Services in England (and How One Might) M. Stone and J. Galbraith
241On the Implementation of Local Probability Matching Priors for Interest Parameters T.J. Sweeting
240Stochastic and Spatial Dynamics of Nematode Parasites in Farmed RuminantsS.J. Cornell, V.S. Isham and B.T. Grenfell
 Research Reports From 2003 
239Accurate Signal Estimation Near Discontinuities T. R. Downie
238Paradox, simple inconsistency, or serious pathology? Comment on `Conditioning as disintegration' by Chang & Pollard M. Stone, A. P. Dawid and J. V. Zidek
237Which Likelihood Ratio? (Comment on "Why the effect of prior odds should accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence", by Ronald Meester and Marjan Sjerps) A. P. Dawid
236Simulation and downscaling models for potential evaporation C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham, C. Annoni and H.S. Wheater
235Prediction of future migration flows to the UK and Germany (Chapter 6 of Home Office Online Report 25/03, www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/rdsolr2503.pdf): Technical exercise, honest study, or convenient obfuscation? M. Stone
234A Statistical Treatment of Biases Affecting the Estimation of Mutation Rates P. Vicard and A. P. Dawid
233Some new formulae for posterior expectations and Bartlett corrections T. J. Sweeting and S. A. Kharroubi
232On the use of generalized linear models for interpreting climate variability R. E. Chandler
231Demographic explanation of a remarkable enhancement of repopulation hemopoiesis by heterozygous connexin43/45 stem cells seeded on wildtype connexin43 stromaM. Rosendaal and M. Stone
230Collapsibility of graphical CG-regression models V. Didelez and D. Edwards
 Research Reports From 2002 
229Ultimate extinction of the promiscuous bisexual Galton-Watson metapopulationStephen J. Cornell and Valerie S. Isham
228Probability, Causality and the Empirical World: A Bayes-de Finetti-Popper-Borel Synthesis (published version)A.P. Dawid
227GLIMCLIM: Generalized Linear Modelling for Daily Climate Time SeriesR.E. Chandler s
226An object-oriented Bayesian network for estimating mutation rates A. P. Dawid
225Probabilistic Expert Systems for DNA Mixture Profiling J. Mortera, A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen
224Floods: Some Probabilistic and Statistical Approaches D.R. Cox, V.S.Isham and P.J.Northrop
223Game Theory, Maximum Entropy, Minimum Discrepancy, and Robust Bayesian Decision Theory (published version)P. D. Grünwald and A. P. Dawid
 Research Reports From 2001 
222A Bayesian Network in Intensive Care: a fully explanatory model for care evaluation D. Luciani
221Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference A. P. Dawid
220Non-Fatherhood or Mutation? A Probabilistic Approach to Parental Exclusion in Paternity Testing A. Philip Dawid, Julia Mortera and Vincenzo L. Pascali
219Bayes's Theorem And Weighing Evidence by Juries A. P. Dawid
 Research Reports From 2000 
218Consistency in Misspecified Models Kostas Skouras and A. Philip Dawid
217Statistical modelling of thermal annealing of fission tracks in Durango apatiteG.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith
216Point estimation for log-linear models where one variable is subject to non-ignorable non-responseP. S. Clarke
215Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera, V. L. Pascali and D. van Boxel
214Models for macroparasite aggregation: the role of the transmission processJulian Herbert and Valerie Isham
213Causal Inference Using Influence Diagrams: the Problem of Partial ComplianceA. P. Dawid
212Separoids: A general framework for conditional independence and irrelevance A. P. Dawid
211Comment on Stockmarr's "Likelihood Ratios for Evaluating DNA Evidence, When the Suspect is Found Through a Database Search" A. P. Dawid
210Compatible Prior Distributions A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen
209Some variations on variation independence A. P. Dawid
208Questions of efficiency estimation in public services: is the state of the art really "State of The Art"? M. Stone
207Distinguishing dose populations in sediment mixtures: a test of single-grain optical dating procedures using mixtures of laboratory-dosed quartzR.G. Roberts, R.F. Galbraith, J.M. Olley, G.M. Laslett and H. Yoshida
206Estimating the age range of optical dating using single `supergrains' of quartzH. Yoshida, R.G. Roberts, J. M. Olley, G.M. Laslett, and R.F. Galbraith
205Disease surveillance and data collection issues in epidemic modellingP.J. Solomon and V.S. Isham
204Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data H.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, C. Onof, R.E. Chandler, P.J. Northrop, P. Guiblin, S.M. Bate, D.R. Cox and D. Koutsoyiannis
 Research Reports From 1999 
203 Model Metaselection X. de Luna and K. Skouras
202 The Trouble with Bayes Factors A.P. Dawid
201Alternative mathematics for ion exchange modelling and data analysisM.Stone
 Research Reports From 1998 
200Strong consistency in nonlinear stochastic regression modelsK. Skouras
199Conditional products: an alternative approach to conditional independenceA. P. Dawid and M. Studeny
198Simulation-based robust estimation of ARMA modelsX. de Luna and M.G. Genton
197Early statisticians: Sir Frederick Morton Eden (1766-1809) and Florence Nightingale (1820-1910)M. Stone
196A point process model for rainfall with dependent duration and intensityAnastasia Kakou
195Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall - a case study from the West of Ireland
II. Modelling of rainfall amounts on wet days
Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater
194Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall - a case study from the West of Ireland
I. Preliminary analysis and modelling of rainfall occurrence
Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater
193Stochastic host-parasite interaction modelsJulian Herbert and Valerie Isham
192Hierarchical Models for DNA Profiling Using Heterogeneous DatabasesA. Philip Dawid and John Pueschel
191Influence of light level on the incidence of road casualties and the associated effect of summertime clock changesM. Hazelton, M. Stone and J. Broughton
 Research Reports From 1997 
190Bayes factors for variance component modelsDonna K. Pauler, Jonathan C. Wakefield and Robert E. Kass
189Modelling issues in forensic inferenceA.P. Dawid
188Causal inference without counterfactualsA.P. Dawid
187A decision theory approach to fitness for pupose in analytical measurementT. Fearn, S.A. Fisher, M. Thompson and S. Ellison
186Spatio-temporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysisR.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and P.J. Northrop
185The Schwarz Criterion and Related Methods for Normal Linear ModelsDonna K. Pauler
184Bayesian image analysis and the disaggregation of rainfallR.E. Chandler, N.G. Mackay, H.S.Wheater and C. Onof
183An optimal local bandwidth selector for kernel density estimationMartin L. Hazelton
182Policies for Poverty from an Analytical AristocratMervyn Stone
181Forensic Identification with Imperfect EvidenceA. P. Dawid and J. Mortera
180Absolute continuity of Markov chainsKostas Skouras
179Bayesian updating and the time-preference reversal effectPeter D. Sozou
178Statistical Modelling and Analysis of Spatial PatternsD.R. Cox, V.S. Isham and Paul Northrop
177A clustered spatial-temporal model of rainfallPaul Northrop
176Spatial-temporal rainfall fields: modelling and statistical aspectsH.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, D.R. Cox, R.E. Chandler, A. Kakou, P.J. Northrop, L.Oh, C. Onof and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe
 Research Reports From 1996  
175Nonconjugate Bayesian regression on many variablesB.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid
174Stochastic spatial-temporal models for rainD.R. Cox and V.S. Isham
173A note on analytical solutions to the Whittle likelihood equationRichard E. Chandler
172Critique of E.T.Jaynes's "Paradoxes of Probability Theory"A.P.Dawid, M.Stone and J.V.Zidek
171Prequential Probability: Principles and PropertiesA.P. Dawid and V.G. Vovk
170Using a graphical method to take account of dependencies when evaluating complicated patterns of evidenceA.P. Dawid and I.W. Evett
169Detecting adulteratism of Basmati rice by the analysis of mixturesT. Fearn
168Discrimination with many variablesP.J. Brown, T. Fearn and M.S. Haque
167Coherent criteria for optimal experimental designA.P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani
166Site 73 in hypervariable region II of the human mitochondrial genome and the origin of European populations.H.M. Wilkinson-Herbots
165The structured coalescentH.M. Herbots
164The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part II)H.M. Herbots
163The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part I)H.M. Herbots
162Optimal rates for local bandwidth selectionM. Hazelton
161Efficient cross-validation of reduced rank regression and JCROR.J. Brooks and M. Stone
160On Efficient Point Prediction SystemsK. Skouras and A.P. Dawid
159On Efficient Probability Forecasting SystemsK. Skouras and A.P. Dawid
158The second-order spectral analysis of spatial-temporal rainfall modelsRichard E. Chandler
157Conditional IndependenceA. P. Dawid
 Research Reports From 1995 
156Statistical modelling of thermal annesting of fission tracksG.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith
155Analysis of Fission track countsR.F. Galbraith and G. Laslett
154Renewal models and renewal-type equations as FunctionalsK. Politis
153Connectedness conditions for the convergence of the Gibbs samplerJ.P. Hubert, C.P. Robert and C. Goutis
152Standardizing SpectrophotometersT. Fearn
151Comparison of Full Bayes and Bayes-Least Squares Criteria for Normal DiscriminationB.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid
150Confidence bounds for the adjustment coefficientS.M. Pitts, R. Grubel and P. Embrechts
149Second derivative functional regression with applications to NIR SpectroscopyC. Goutis
148Spatial-temporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysisR. Chandler, V. Isham, A. Kakou and P. Northrop
147Monte Carlo inference for a model of carbon fibre strength M. Hazelton
146Bandwidth selection for local density estimatorsM. Hazelton
145Improved Monte Carlo inference for models with additive errorM. Hazelton
144Comments on "The roles of conditioning in inference" by N. ReidA. P. Dawid and C. Goutis
143Modelling mixed fission trackages: a cube root truncated normal modelR.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett
142A spectral method for estimating parameters in rainfall modelsRichard E. Chandler
141Prequential AnalysisA. P. Dawid
 Research Reports from 1994 
140Partial least squares regression on smooth factorsC. Goutis and T. Fearn
139Proper Measures of Discrepancy Uncertainty and Dependence with Applications to Predictive Experimental Design [revised] [original]A. P. Dawid
138On Compatible priors for Baysian NetworksR. Cowell
137Model choice in generalized linear models: a Bayesian approach via Kullback-Leibler projectionsC. Goutis and C.P. Robert
136Elementary Watson! Coherent Analysis of Forensic EvidenceA. P. Dawid and J. Mortera
135A comparison of sequential learning methods for incomplete dataR. G. Cowell, A. P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani
134Stochastic Models of Host-Macroparasite InteractionValerie Isham
133Distributive Block Structures: Mathematical PropertiesA.P. Dawid
132Decision networks: A formulation for multistage decision problems.Robert G. Cowell
131A note on nonregular likelihood functions in heterosecdastic regression models.Adam Crisp and Jim Burridge
130The efficient cross-validation of principal components applied to principal component regressionBart Mertens, Tom Fearn and Michael Thompson
 Research Reports From 1993 
129Hybrid Propagation in Junction TreesA.P. Dawid, U. Kjaerulff and S.L. Lauritzen
128Stochastic Models of PrecipitationD.R. Cox and Valerie Isham
127Unique redescending t M-Estimates for the Linear Regression ModelAdam Crisp and Jim Burridge
126Partial Least Squares Algorithm Yields Shrinkage EstimatorsConstantinos Goutis
125Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the presence of Extra-Poisson VariationHassan Johaadien and Constantinos Goutis
124Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple PredictandsRodney Brooks and Mervyn Stone
123Taking Prediction SeriouslyA.P. Dawid
122Estimation in Linear Models using the back Propagation AlgorithmK. Skouras, C. Goutis and M.J. Bramson
121Frequentist Post-Data InferenceConstantinos Goutis and George Casella
120Choice among Hypotheses using Estimation CriteriaConstantinos Goutis and Christian P. Robert
119D-Optimal Designs for Generalised Linear Models with Variance Proportional to the Square of the MeanJim Burridge and Paola Sebastiani
118Analysing Unreplicated FactorialsJorge Olguin
117Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests of fit when parameters are estimated from order statisticsM. Taghavi-Khonsary
116Some applications of radial plotsR.F. Galbraith
115The Island Problem: Coherent use of Identification Evidence A.P. Dawid
114Statistical models for mixed ages in fission track analysisR.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett
113Assessing Evidence in Multiple HypothesesConstantinos Goutis, George Casella and Martin T. Wells
 Research Reports From 1992 
112Coherent Combination of Experts' OpinionsA.P. Dawid, M.H. DeGroot and J. Mortera
111Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insuranceSusan M. Pitts
110Some applications of the fast Fourier transform algorithm in insurance mathematicsPaul Embrechts, Rudolf Grubel and Susan M. Pitts
109Calculating moments of decomposable functions in Bayesian networksR.G. Cowell
108The Dilation Phenomenon in Robust Bayesian Inference by Larry Wasserman and Teddy SeidenfeldConstantinos Goutis
107A note on the uniqueness of M-estimators in robust regressionA. Crisp and Jim Burridge
106The analysis of projected fission track lengthsG.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith
105Flat or Natural? A Note on the Choice of Calibration Samples.T. Fearn
104Selection Paradoxes of Bayesian InferenceA.P. Dawid
103Bayesian Analysis in Expert SystemsD.J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid Steffen L. Lauritzen, Robert G. Cowell
102Statistical Aspects of Chaos: A ReviewValerie Isham
101A Graphical Method for solving a Decision Analysis problemConstantinos Goutis
100A repeat of the ""Benveniste"" experiment: statistical analysisJim Burridge
99Relationships between post data accuracy measures.George Casella and Constantinos Goutis
98Nonparametric estimation of the stationary waiting time distribution function for the GI/G/1 queueSusan M. Pitts
97Statistical Aspects of pre-operative screening for anaesthetic allergiesConstantinos Goutis
 Research Reports From 1991 
96Asymptotic property of a Bayesian discrimination problemB.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid
95Sequential model criticism in probabilistic expert systemsR.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid, D.J. Spiegelhalter
94Shrinking CalibrationsT. Fearn
93Graphical Modelling of Data from Whitehall IIIan White
92Stochastic Models for Epidemics with Special Reference to AidsValerie Isham
91Optimal Designs for Generalized Linear ModelsJ. Burridge and P. Sebastiani
90Bayesian estimation methods for contingency tables.Constantinos Goutis
89Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert systemR.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid
88Applications of a General Propagation Algorithm for Probabilistic Expert SystemsA.P. Dawid
87A Bayesian Expert System for the Analysis of an Adverse Drug ReactionR.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T. Hutchinson, D.J. Spiegelhalter
86BAIES - A Probabilistic Expert System Shell with Qualitative and Quantitative LearningRobert Cowell
84Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple PredictandsMervyn Stone and Rodney Brooks
83Conjugate Bayes Discrimination with Infinitely Many VariablesA.P. Dawid and B.Q. Fang
82Prequential Analysis, Stochastic Complexity and Bayesian InferenceA.P. Dawid
80Unique and Consistent M-Estimators for Linear Models and Symmetry Heavy-tailed Error DistributionsJim Burridge
79Recovering extra-binomial variationConstantinos Goutis
 Research Reports From 1990 
78Increasing the Confidence in Student's t Interval.Constantinos Goutis and George Casella
77A functional approach to the stationary waiting time and idle period distributions of the GI/G/I queueRudolf Grübel and Susan M. Pitts
76Assessing the variability of stochastic epidemicsValerie Isham
75Generic Organisational Networks for the Analysis of Drug SafetyR.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T.A. Hutchinson, S. Roden and D.J. Spiegelhalter
74Foundations of Probability (Article for ""Encyclopaedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences"")A.P. Dawid
73Lumbricus Terrestris: A Game for Teaching Resource-Limited Statistical Society.G. Brian Newman
72Box-Cox Transformations and the Taguchi Method: an Alternative Analysis of a Taguchi Case StudyT. Fearn
71An Application of Box-Jenkins Methodology to the Control of Gluten Addition in a Flour Mill.T. Fearn and P.I. Maris
70Ranges of Posterior Measures for Some Classes of Priors with Specified MomentsConstantinos Goutis
69Probabilistic causality assessment after a suspected adverse drug reaction: a case study in Bayesian network modelling.David J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid, Tom A. Hutchinson, R.G. Cowell
68Comments on the use of the back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV infection and AidsValerie Isham
67Fisherian Inference in Likelihood and Prequential Frames of ReferenceA.P. Dawid
 Research Reports From 1989 
66Comment on Joshi's ""Counter-example against the likelihood Principle""A.P. Dawid, T. Fearn and M. Stone
65Markov Distributions, Hyper Markov Laws and Meta Markov Models on Decomposable Graphs, with Applications to Bayesian Learning in Expert SystemsA.P. Dawid and S.L. Lauritzen
64A Stratified Binomial Marker Model for Bone-Marrow Repopulation ExperimentsM. Stone and D. Harrison
 Research Reports From 1988 
63Independence Properties of Directed Markov FieldsS.L. Lauritzen, A.P. Dawid, B.N. Larsen, H.G. Leimer
62Continuum Regression: Cross-validated, Sequentially-constructed Prediction embracing Ordinary Least Squares, Partial Least Squares, and Principal Components RegressionM. Stone and R.J. Brooks
61Prequential Tests of Model FitF. Seillier, T.J. Sweeting and A.P. Dawid
60Moment-Based Estimating Equations, Mean-Variance Relationships and Exponential Dispersion ModelsJ. Burridge
 Research Reports From 1987 
59Functional Models, Fiducial Prediction and Semi-Bayesian InferenceA.P. Dawid
58Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection and Aids: A ReviewValerie Isham
57On testing the validity of probability forecastsR.M.L.G. Seillier
56The Infinite Regress and its Conjugate AnalysisA.P. Dawid
55The Population Genealogy of the Infinitely-Many Neutral Alleles ModelPeter Donnelly and Simon Tavare
 Research Reports From 1986 
54Notes on Linear Sufficiency in the General Linear ModelM. Stone
53Symmetry Analysis of the Mixed ModelA.P. Dawid
52Isobolic Determination of Linear and 'Ratio-Linear' ParametersM. Stone
51A Bayes, Sweep-Operational Construction for Rao's Unified Theory of Linear Estimation (Short Title: Construction for Unified Least-Squares)M. Stone and J.L. Wang
50Symmetry Models and Hypotheses for Structured Data LayoutsA.P. Dawid
49Graphical Display of Estimates having Differing Standard errorsR.F. Galbraith
48Mean-variance Relationships, Generalised Linear Models and GLIMJ. Burridge
47The difficulty about conjunctionA.P. Dawid
46Prequential Data AnalysisA.P. Dawid
45Inter-Particle Correlation in Death Processes with application to Compartmental models.Frank Ball and Peter Donnelly
44Stochastic Monotonicity in a reinforcement-depletion compartmental Urn ModelPeter Donnelly
 Research Reports From 1985 
43Marked Point Processes and Their Correlation'sValerie Isham
42Prequential Assessment of Discrete Probability ForecastsFrançoise Seillier
41Statistical Analysis of C.W. Naeser's Fish Canyon Zircon DataR.F. Galbraith
40Ubles or Blues?Mervyn Stone
39Coordinate-Free multivariable statistics: From Halmos to Gauss to BayesMervyn Stone
38Asymptotic Inference for Eigenvectors of Covariance and Correlation MatricesT. Kollo
37The Virtual Waiting Time and Related ProcessesD.R. Cox and Valerie Isham
 Research Reports From 1984  
36A Statistical Analysis of some 2-players GamesJ.Q. Smith
35Decomposition and Bayesian analysis of invariant normal linear models.G. Consonni and A.P. Dawid
34Some Characterizations of Stochastic transformations relevant to models for experimentsM. Stone and B. Johnston
33Optimal allocation for Bayesian inference about an odds ratioR.J. Brooks
 Research Reports From 1983  
32Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow … The Prequential Approach to Statistical TheoryA.P. Dawid
31Invariant Normal Bayesian Linear Models and Experimental DesignsG. Consonni and A.P. Dawid
29Cross-Validated Composition Determination in Nuclear AnalysisC.M. Brien and M. Stone
28On Jackknife, Cross-Validatory and Classical Methods of Estimating a proportion with batches of different sizes.C.C. Frangos and M. Stone
27Statistical ReasoningM. Stone
26Catastrophes in Statistical Models and Decision Theory: A way of Seeing.J.Q. Smith
25A dynamic Forecasting Model for a General Class of Discontinuous Time SeriesR.G. Gathercole and J.Q. Smith
24Approximate likelihood ratio tests in the analysis of beta-binomial data.R.J. Brooks
23Variance-Covariance Modelling for Chromosome Marker Data with Application to HaemopoiesisM. Stone
22Decomposition of Statistical Problems by means of Invariance Mathematical Tools and ResultsG. Consonni
21On the Relative Efficiency of Censored Reliability StudiesR.J. Brooks
20Fitting Generalised Linear Models in the Analysis of Fission Track CountsR.J. Brooks
19On Statistical Estimation in Fission Track DatingR.F. Galbraith
18Exploratory studies of some Non-Local Non-Linear Design CriteriaMervyn Stone and Julie Morris
 Research Reports From 1982 
17Bivarate Markov Point Processes - Some ApproximationsValerie Isham
16Forecasting accident claims for an Assurance CompanyJ.Q Smith
15Point Processes and the Markov PropertyValerie Isham
14Objective Probability ForecastsA.P. Dawid
13Probability, Symmetry and FrequencyA.P. Dawid
12A Bivariate Spatial Point Process of Ants NestsR.D. Harkness and Valerie Isham
11Statistical Analysis of some Fission Track Counts and Neutron Fluence Measurements.R.F. Galbraith
9Invariance and Independence in Multivariate Distribution TheoryA.P. Dawid
 Research Reports From 1981 
8Principles of Interactive ForecastingJ.Q. Smith and R.B. Cathercole
7Catastrophies and Geometric SufficiencyJ.Q. Smith
6Fiducial ProbabilityM. Stone
5A General Statistical Model for Clone/Tissue studies using X-Chromosome Inactivation DataM. Stone
4Intersubjective Statistical ModelsA.P. Dawid
3Statistical InferenceA.P. Dawid
2Invariant Prior DistributionsA.P. Dawid
1The Functional-Model Basis of Fiducial InferenceA.P. Dawid and M. Stone