Statistical Science


Spatial-Temporal Rainfall Modelling with Climate Change Scenarios

Reports, working papers and launch meeting presentations

This page contains links to reports and working papers produced under the FD2113 project, as well as presentations from a launch meeting held at CEH Wallingford on 2nd May 2007.

Presentations from launch meeting

This meeting was entitled Evaluating the impact of climate change upon rainfall and sponsored by the RAINMAP network. As well as presenting the results from the FD2113 project, the meeting provided an opportunity to publicise a number of other initiatives and research developments that may be of interest to practitioners, researchers and decision makers with an interest in climate change impacts. The presentations were as follows (most available for download as PDF files):

The meeting concluded with an open discussion chaired by Suresh Surendran (Environment Agency). 

Research reports

Report Date File format Description
Final project report and executive summary December 2006 PDF

This is a brief summary of the work carried out in the project, along with scientific conclusions and recommendations for practitioners (30 pages, plus figures and executive summary).

Note that this is not the official DEFRA version of this report, and some front matter is missing. For enquiries about the official version, please use the contact email address on the DEFRA web page for this project.

Project report no. 1 July 2005 PDF Review of methods for deriving local scale precipitation from future climate model scenarios (author: Nadja Leith)
Project report no. 2 December 2005 PDF

Using generalized linear models to simulate daily rainfall under scenarios of climate change (author: Nadja Leith)

Note: this refers to a non-refereed internal report comparing NCEP and observational rainfall data. The latter report was written in 2000 as part of a project sponsored by the TSUNAMI consortium. Copies can be downloaded here (Postscript version) or here (PDF version).

Project report no. 3 September 2006 PDF Point process models for subdaily rainfall simulation (author: Nadja Leith)
Project report no. 4 September 2006 PDF Multi-site downscaling for the Blackwater catchment (authors: Andrew Frost, Richard Chandler and Marie-Laure Segond)
Project report no. 5 December 2006 PDF Climate model uncertainty (author: Nadja Leith)
Project report no. 6 In preparation PDF Demonstration of integrated methodology (authors: Richard Chandler and Nadja Leith)
Technical note no. 1 October 2005 PDF

Summary of a student dissertation comparing the properties of observed rainfall sequences with those generated by Regional Climate Models (summary prepared by Richard Chandler). To cite this note, please use the following reference:

Birgit Schrödle (2005): Representation of rainfall by regional climate models. B.Sc. dissertation, Department of Statistical Science, University College London. This dissertation was awarded first prize in the 2005 national ASLU (Association of Statistics Lecturers in Universities) Project Prize Competition.

Administrative reports

Report Date File format Description
Inception report April 2004 Microsoft Word document Gives details of the project proposal and work packages
Status report December 2005 Microsoft Word document Provides an update to the inception report, in the light of changes that have been agreed during the course of the project

Other pages relating to project FD2113

Project overview page.
Software to download.
Links page.