No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The Norm We Need

By Fergus Green (1), Olivier Bois von Kursk (2), Greg Muttitt (2,3), Steve Pye (3)
Science. Vol. 384, Issue 6699, pp. 954–957

(1) Department of Political Science, University College London (UCL), London, UK. (2) International Institute for Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland. (3) UCL Energy Institute, London, UK. Email: fergus.green@ucl.ac.uk


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SUMMARY
The groundbreaking decision at the United Nations (UN) climate meeting in late 2023 (COP28) calls on parties “to contribute to…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” Yet, the global production and use of fossil fuels continue to expand, making the goals of the Paris Agreement ever more difficult to achieve. This Policy Forum article argues that proponents of ambitious climate action should focus on stopping new fossil fuel projects, encompassing exploration for and development of new fossil fuel extraction sites, and permitting and construction of new, large-scale fossil fuel–consuming infrastructure. Specifically, the article argues that governments should ban new fossil fuel projects, and civil society should advocate such bans. Together, these efforts would help to build a global “No New Fossil” norm. The article makes the case for this norm in three steps. First, it shows that no new fossil fuel projects are needed in a 1.5°C world: existing fossil fuel capital stock is sufficient to meet energy demand in representative scenarios aligned with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Second, it explains why preventing new fossil fuel projects is, generally, more economically, politically, and legally feasible than closing existing projects. The first two claims together justify a third, normative claim: that new fossil fuel projects ought not be permitted. It is this third claim that, the article argues, ought to form the substantive content of the proposed new norm. The article explains why efforts to construct a ‘No New Fossil’ norm have great potential to be a major step on the path to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Supplementary materials can be downloaded here
 

Forecasted global demand, extraction, and generation. Graphs reflect forecasted global primary energy production from gas and oil (panels 1 and 2) and capacity of unabated coal and gas power plants (panels 3 and 4) compared with energy demand based on IEA NZE and Selected IPCC 1.5°C scenarios (n = 26). See supplementary materials.
GRAPHIC: D. AN-PHAM/SCIENCE