The Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit, Professor Alan Renwick, gave oral evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee on 27 November. He appeared alongside Professor Andrew Blick from King’s College London, Dr Elisenda Casanas Adam from the University of Edinburgh, and Unit associate Professor Nicola McEwen from the University of Glasgow. The Committee is holding a short inquiry to examine the options for a legal mechanism for triggering any independence referendum.
Professor Renwick’s written evidence, submitted ahead of the hearing, drew on the Constitution Unit’s Independent Commission on Referendums, Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland and on its Doing Democracy Better research project. Given there is wide agreement that the people of Scotland have a right to decide their constitutional future, he argued that principles as to when a referendum may or must be called should be established and he examined what form these could take. He advised that other features of the referendum process should also be settled in advance, including the franchise, the structure of the vote and the rules of the campaign.
During the oral evidence session, Professor Renwick said: ‘I do think there is a problem in current arrangements. It is accepted that this is a decision to be made by the people of Scotland, but there is not a mechanism for ensuring that the people of Scotland have an opportunity to make that decision.’
Acknowledging that such a mechanism would only come about if the UK government wanted it, he suggested that this could happen if a government faced a demand from the Scottish Parliament that was strong enough not to be dismissible, but not so strong that ministers in London felt they had to accept it. Such a mechanism would likely set a high bar for a referendum. A minimum period between referendums might also be set.
Professor McEwen warned that ‘the political risk of rejecting a claim become higher’ if a single political party wins a majority of MSPs, ‘particularly if it is matched by a clearer majority among the people of Scotland’. Additionally, ‘the further you get from the 2014 referendum the more tricky politically it is to say the decision was already made’.
The session explored many aspects of the design of a referendum process, including whether a two-referendum process should be established, what the threshold in the vote might be and what roles deliberative processes such as citizens’ assemblies might play. Professor Renwick and Professor McEwen both argued that these are important matters that deserve careful consideration. Dr Casanas Adam argued that now is a good time to debate and agree rules, when pressure to call a referendum is relatively low. Professor Blick warned: ‘the politics of the time are going to play a huge role in whether the referendum happens and the way in which it plays out’.
A recording of the session is available on YouTube.
Key links:
- The Constitution Unit – find out more about the Constitution Unit.
- Alan Renwick gives oral evidence on a legal Scottish independence referendum – watch a recording of the session.
- Professor Alan Renwick Legal mechanism for any independence referendum inquiry – read Professor Renwick’s written evidence.