| 28 January - 3 February | UN inquiry into Khashoggi murder Agnes Callamard, the UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, has embarked on a week-long mission to Turkey to investigate the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October last year, prompting global condemnation and speculations that his murder could have been ordered at the highest levels of government. Callamard said she had requested access to the consulate but is still awaiting permission from the Saudi authorities. Her report will be presented to the UN Human Rights Council in June. |
| 2 February | US to suspend observance of INF treaty The US has confirmed that it will suspend compliance with the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty on 2 February, after a January meeting between US and Russian officials brought no progress. Washington had first announced its intention to pull out of the treaty in October 2018, citing the dispute over Russia’s cruise missile system 9M729. Russia denies that 9M729 is in breach of the INF treaty. It has accused the US of violating the INF treaty itself, including by deploying the Aegis Ashore missile defence system in Romania and Poland. |
| 3 February | Salvadorian presidential elections Presidential elections in El Salvador are scheduled for 3 February, with former San Salvador Mayor Nayib Bukele leading in the polls. A victory for Bukele, who is running as an independent candidate, could mark a significant shift in Salvadorian politics which has been dominated for three decades by the right-wing National Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN). The elections take place against the backdrop of a protracted security crisis, with El Salvador being one of the world’s most violent countries not at war. |
| 5 February | Donald Trump to deliver State of the Union speech US president Donald Trump has accepted an invitation by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to deliver his State of the Union speech on 5 February. The address had originally been scheduled for 29 January but was postponed by Pelosi amid the longest partial government shutdown in US history, which had been triggered by Trump’s demand for funding to build a wall along the US-Mexico border. Trump and congressional leaders agreed to a temporary funding measure on 25 January, however, Trump has threatened to shut down the government again if no compromise on border security is reached by 15 February. |
| By 13 February | Theresa May to seek renegotiated Brexit deal Theresa May has received parliamentary support to renegotiate her Brexit deal with the EU in an attempt to find “alternative arrangements” to replace the Irish backstop. However, it remains unclear what these arrangements could look like and the EU has vowed not to reopen the withdrawal agreement. If no new deal is reached by 13 February, May will make a statement to parliament on that day and table an amendable motion for debate the following day. |
13-14 February | US-led summit on the Middle East The US is hosting a two-day conference in Poland on “terrorism and extremism, missile development and proliferation, maritime trade and security, and threats posed by proxy groups” in the Middle East. The summit’s original focus was on containing Iran’s influence in the region, however, the agenda has been broadened as European diplomats have been reluctant to attend the summit. The US and the EU have been clashing over Iran since the Trump administration decided to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal. |
| 15-17 February | Munich Security Conference International policy makers and security experts will meet in Germany from 15 to 17 February for the annual Munich Security Conference. The three-day conference will focus on the future of transatlantic relations, EU foreign and security policy and other security and defence related topics. |
| 16 February | General elections in Nigeria Nigeria’s general elections on 16 February will be the sixth since the end of military rule in 1999. Although a large number of candidates are standing for election as president, the race is expected to be primarily a two-way contest between the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Ahead of the election, international observers have expressed concern about Buhari’s decision to suspend Nigeria’s chief justice, Walter Onnoghen, who would have played a key role in settling any election disputes. |
| 24 February | Presidential elections in Senegal Presidential elections will be held in Senegal on 24 February. Incumbent president Macky Sall is facing four challengers, however, the two main opposition candidates, former Dakar mayor Khalifa Sall and ex-minister Karim Wade, have been barred from participating in the election because of criminal convictions for misuse of public funds. |
| 24 February | Moldovan parliamentary elections On 24 February, Moldovans will head to the polls for parliamentary elections. This will be the first elections to be held according to a new electoral system, passed in September 2017, which critics say systematically reduces opposition parties’ chances and is likely to increase electoral corruption. |
| 25 February | Next round of US-Taliban talks The next round of peace talks between Afghanistan’s Taliban and the US has been tentatively set for 25 February. This comes after six days of negotiations in Qatar last week resulted in a draft agreement for a peace deal. |
| 27 February | UN high-level debate on international migration and development The president of the UN General Assembly will hold a high-level debate on international migration and development on 27 February. The debate is expected to assess the implications of migration across the various goals and targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. |
| End of February [TBC] | Second US-North Korea summit US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are planning to convene a second summit by the end of February, according to the White House. At their last meeting in Singapore in June 2018, the two leaders agreed to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula”, however, the meeting failed to secure any concrete commitments from North Korea. |
| Notable Historical Anniversaries and International Days |
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Global Events Forecast - February 2019
Every month, the GGI compiles a list of upcoming international events that have some implications for its work. Here is a compilation of global meetings and events coming up in February 2019.
30 January 2019
