QUEST-GSI Global-Scale Impacts
UCL Geography led QUEST-GSI to quantify global climate change impacts on freshwater resources, combining basin-scale modelling with high-resolution climate projections for informed policy decisions.
QUEST-GSI (Global-Scale Impacts of climate change) operated from 2007–2010. The UCL-led team quantified climate change impacts on freshwater resources across global basins using calibrated hydrological models and innovative climate projections (ClimGen). This work fed into broader assessments of floods, crop production, and human health led by the Walker Institute, University of Reading.
Project Rationale and Key Aims
Climate change impact studies often use varied socio-economic and climate scenarios, making comparisons difficult. QUEST-GSI applied a consistent suite of scenarios to support systematic understanding.
- Assess impacts of climate change and future development on freshwater resources.
- Quantify uncertainty in predictions across GCMs and socio-economic scenarios.
- Support policy evaluation for greenhouse gas mitigation measures.
The UCL team, led by Richard Taylor, collaborated with global partners to conduct basin-scale assessments and develop robust predictions.
Basin-Scale Water Resources
Adaptation to climate change occurs at basin scales. Calibrated hydrological models allow detailed representation of freshwater resources (soil water, groundwater) and demand, providing insights beyond macro-scale models.
Highlights:
- High-resolution climate predictions (0.5º x 0.5º) using GCM pattern-scaling (ClimGen).
- Seven selected GCMs from IPCC AR4: CCCMA, CSIRO, IPSL, ECHAM5, NCAR-CCSM3, HadCM3, HadGEM.
- Emissions scenarios: SRES A1b, A2, B1, B2.
- Prescribed warming increments: 0.5ºC to 6.0ºC.
- Outputs feature in IPCC AR5, Working Group II, Chapter 3: Freshwater Resources.
IPCC AR5 Chapter 3
Access Figure 3-5 from IPCC AR5 Working Group II, showing freshwater resource projections informed by QUEST-GSI research.
View IPCC Figure 3-5HESS Special Issue
Read QUEST-GSI papers in the Hydrology & Earth System Sciences special issue on climate and water resources.
Explore HESS Issue| Basin | Collaborator | Institution |
|---|---|---|
| River Nile tributary (River Mitano) | Daniel Kingston | UCL |
| River Mekong | Daniel Kingston, Geoff Kite | UCL / Hydro-Logic Solutions |
| River Okavango | Denis Hughes | Rhodes University, South Africa |
| River Changjiang (Yangtze) | Yan Huang, Yang Wenfa | Changjiang Water Resources Commission, China |
| River Parana tributary (Rio Grande) | Walter Collischonn, Marcio Nobrega | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil |
| River Mackenzie tributary (River Liard) | Robin Thorne | McMaster University, Canada |
Climate Scenarios and Uncertainty Analysis
- Use of multiple GCMs and emissions scenarios.
- Analysis of prescribed global warming increments from 0.5ºC to 6.0ºC.
- Quantified variability across GCMs and scenarios.
- Results improve confidence in freshwater availability projections.
Featured in IPCC AR5
Findings from UCL Geography’s QUEST-GSI project informed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group II, Chapter 3 – Freshwater Resources.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group II, Chapter 3Explore BSc Geography
Study climate change, ecosystems, hazards and global challenges through fieldwork, lab training and research-led teaching in the heart of London.
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