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UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction

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Danielle Charlton

The threat of volcanic activity to major urban centres

Campi Flegrei caldera located close to the City of Naples, Italy, has shown progressive unrest since 1969. This is the first unrest for more than 400 years and mimics behaviour in the decades approaching the last eruption in 1538. There is thus an elevated concern that Campi Flegrei has entered a new pre-eruptive phase.

Using Campi Flegrei and the City of Naples as a case study, we will develop a generalized methodology or evaluating the impact of explosive volcanic activity on densely­ populated districts. The results will be presented in formats compatible with standard GIS, so that they can readily be incorporated into existing programmes for civil protection agencies and the insurance sector. A key philosophy is that the results must have an immediate practical value in assisting decision makers to select the most appropriate response to a volcanic emergency.