Conference on "International Co-operation and Exchange of Data and Information During Transnational Crises"

David Alexander and Patty Kostkova On 6-8 September 2017, UCL and UCL IRDR co-sponsored a conference run by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at Wilton Park, a retreat operated by the Foreign Office of the UK Government.

Wilton Park is home to gatherings of experts who debate the leading issues of the day and offer learned support to the formulators of Government policy in the UK. The September meeting was dedicated to "International Co-operation and Exchange of Data and Information During Transnational Crises". Participants at the conference included executives and policy and science advisors from government departments of the UK, the USA, and several other European, American, African, and Asian nations; and global leaders in disaster research including UCL IRDR's David Alexander and Patty Kostkova. Professor David Alexander is an expert in disaster preparedness and disaster management, and Dr Patty Kostkova is an expert in the use of big data, mobile technology and games to address global health challenges. 

In the modern age, disasters, incidents and conflicts are increasing their international reach such that even localised events often have ramifications across national borders. For example, disaster and conflict are associated with large-scale international migration and major disease outbreaks (Ebola, Zika virus, and so on) require coordinated international responses. Not only are the consequences of disaster becoming more international, but there is a growing need for better sharing of data and information and more transnational coordination of responses to crises, in terms of both mitigation and response. 

Over the two and a half days of the conference, six scenarios were discussed, all of which have either happened (and may yet repeat or intensify in the future) or have a significant probability of occurring. The first two dealt with epidemics, namely Ebola in West Africa and Zika in Brazil. The third was the April-May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland and the fourth, the pan-national river flooding in central Europe in 2013. The fifth scenario explicitly referred to disaster as a cascade of impacts and consequences, namely the Great Eastern Japan earthquake of March 2011. These five scenarios were examined by a form of 'backcasting' that sought to extract the lessons from them in order to feed these into a forecasting mode. However, the sixth and final scenario considered the future impact of a major space weather event. As the last very large coronal mass ejection occurred in 1859, before most modern technology existed, the effects of a major solar storm on satellites, telecommunications and electricity distribution are largely conjectural, but they could be profoundly disruptive. 

The emphasis of the conference was on providing 'situational awareness' during the periods preceding and immediately following the impact of a crisis, or also during it if the impact is a long drawn-out one. Delegates were asked to identify what information could be harvested and used, and how it could be applied to the many practical problems that disaster causes. In an age of 'big data' and rapid mass communication, there have never been as many opportunities to gather and analyse data, but there is a pressing need to examine whether scientific information is used to best advantage for the protection of people, governments and businesses around the world. In both Japan and the United States there have been situations in which the public has lost its sense of trust in politicians and scientists. Hence, there is a need to ensure that scientific information that is used to protect the public is reliable, timely and comprehensible. 

The results of workshops in the six scenarios produced an intriguing mixture of physical, social and technical observations which highlighted the fact that disaster problems tend to be multi-faceted and to demand solutions that require the work of many different specialists. For example, in terms of a 'Carrington event' (a geomagnetic storm on the scale of that observed by the astronomer Richard Carrington in 1859), there would be a need for 'situational awareness' on a national and global scale, for technical solutions to limit damage to satellites and electrical equipment, and for deep analysis of the consequences for daily life of the loss, however temporary it is, of Global Positioning System, cellular telephony and electricity supply. The discussion among experts showed how points of view can differ between different disciplines. For example, an engineering strategy against disasters may look to create redundancy, diversity and segregation, whereas a social strategy may focus on verification and dissemination of information, solidarity and the analysis of vulnerability. Positions may be very diverse, but they are not unreconcilable. Hence, with careful consideration of probable scenarios for disaster, the basis of planning and preparedness can be created by collaborative effort and better use of scientific information in both the policy and practice of hazards management. 

The conference demonstrated that both the UK Foreign Office and the OECD are alert to the need to use science in crisis management. Both organisations recognise that the complexity of the modern world makes disaster risk reduction a challenging field, in which there are many uncertainties that even the best scientific advice cannot eliminate. The strong sense of collaboration and sharing on know-how that prevailed throughout the conference undoubtedly contributed to a greater understanding of the problems tackled. 

A report on the conference is now available from the Wilton Park website at:- 

https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/event/wp1564/

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