Development/validation of risk prediction models for women’s cancer using the UKCTOCS dataset

Principal Supervisor: Usha Menon

Subsidiary Supervisor: Aleksandra Gentry-Maharaj

Project Summary:

Each year over 70,000 women in the UK are diagnosed with breast, ovarian, endometrial cancer. One in 5 to 1 in 3 of these cancers are attributable to lifestyle and other risk factors and hence potentially preventable. (1) In addition, there are established and emerging (2) screening strategies for early detection. Currently risk stratification is based mainly on age, family history and mutations in known genes such as BRCA. Improved risk prediction would allow women to be better triaged and motivated to avail of screening/prevention strategies.

The project aims is to develop new and validate existing risk prediction models for these cancers using the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) cohort of 202,638 women. (3) As of March 2015, 6,000 have been diagnosed with breast, 1,300 with ovarian and 1,600 with endometrial cancer. Self-reported data on demographics and lifestyle factors are available. (4,5) Novel biomarker /genetic data is being generated in case control studies. Linkage to national cancer registries and Hospital Episodes Statistics ensures completeness of outcome data. The PhD would involve further enrichment of the dataset through up-to-date downloads from existing sources as well as new linkage to datasets such as the breast cancer screening database, data cleaning/analysis and modelling. The student would attend epidemiological statistics courses. The work would be supported by the UKCTOCS team which includes principle investigator, senior post doctoralresearch associate, database manager and senior statistician, all with significant experience in this area.  

References:

  1. http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type
  2. Jacobs IJ, Menon U, Ryan A et al. Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2016 Mar 5;387(10022):945-56
  3. Menon U, Gentry-Maharaj A, Ryan A et al. Recruitment to multicentre trials--lessons from UKCTOCS: descriptive study. BMJ. 2008 Nov 13;337:a2079. doi: 10.1136/bmj.a2079
  4. Fourkala EO, Burnell M, Cox C,  et al. Association of skirt size and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in older women: a cohort study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). BMJ Open. 2014 Sep 24;4(9):e005400. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005400
  5. Gentry-Maharaj A, Taylor H, Kalsi J,  et al. Validity of self-reported hysterectomy: a prospective cohort study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). BMJ Open. 2014 Mar 3;4(3):e004421. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2013-004421