COVID-19: Evidence to Inform Policy & Mitigate the Impact in Nigeria

Project Summary 

Scope of the project is to join the Evidence Synthesis Group supporting the Government of Nigeria and the Presidential Task Force with rapid access to Epi, Surveillance and modelling information for rapid decision making in response to COVID-19. 

The project involves (but is not limited to):

• summarise international data and best practices;
• generate and synthesise local data with NCDC and other local partners;
• develop a Nigeria-based COVID19 transmission model; and
• articulate and disseminate the best evidence to inform policy and action through the Presidential Taskforce on COVID-19 through weekly policy briefs and bespoke presentations.

With less than 400 intensive care beds, and about 350 ventilators in country, Nigeria’s ability to mount a major therapeutic response is limited. Testing is being increased across the country and isolation centres have been established, generating more data and hopefully help contain the spread of the virus. 

The response in Nigeria is led by the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19, comprised of leading policy makers, and should be supported by academic and civil society stakeholders.

To support their work, this project works to summarize international evidence and best practices, generate and synthesize local data with NCDC and other local partners, and articulate and disseminate the best evidence to inform policy and action.

Our deliverable will be linked with the Nigeria Lancet Commission to ensure that we maximize lessons learned, while contributing to the ongoing response.

Approach 

This project provides on-demand synthesis and communication of information and evidence to the PTF for COVID-19, as well additional data and evidence on the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 and effects on non-COVID diseases and health system. The project operates via two interconnected work packages: 

Work package #1

Overarching evidence synthesis and triangulation of a) COVID-19 disease projections, b) proposed control measures, and c) indirect effects on health systems and routine health sector activities, to the PTF.

Work package #2

Additional modelling outputs consisting of: a) UCL developed SEIR model, b) modified version of the Imperial College agent based model, c) analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on maternal and child health outcomes, and d) sero-epidemiological and contact data to help with parametrizing models with Nigeria-specific data, which will transparently contribute to the models synthesized and triangulated under WP #1. 

Key Project Information

Dates: May 2020 – April 2021

Status: Current

UCL lead/Principal Investigator: Dr Lara Goscé

Partners: Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Nigerian Institute for Medical Research (NIMR), VESTA Healthcare

Location: Nigeria, UK

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Contact: Sarah Sterlini: s.sterlini@ucl.ac.uk

More Information

Visit our Lancet Nigeria Commission website.

Publications - Position papers (Nigerian Government website)