Dr Nils Metternich
I am a Professor in the UCL Department of Political Science. My research focuses on the strategic nature of civil conflicts and the prediction of its dynamics. Previously, I was a postdoc at Duke University in the Department of Political Science. I received my PhD in Government from the University of Essex. My work has been awarded the Stuart Bremer Award (Peace Science Assocation), the Dina Zinnes Award (International Studies Association) and the Best Paper Award in the Conflict Processes Section (American Political Science Association). I currently serve as Associate Editor for Political Science Research and Methods.
My current research interests include authoritarian regimes, protests and civil wars, with a methodological focus on forecasting, spatial econometrics and network analysis. Recent publications have appeared in the American Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Conflict Resolution and Political Science Research and Methods.
- Journal articles
- Steinwand, M. C., and Metternich, N. W. (2022) ‘Who Joins and Who Fights? Explaining Tacit Coalition Behavior among Civil War Actors’, International Studies Quarterly, 66(4).
- Hollenbach, F. M, Bojinov, I., Minhas, S., Metternich, N. W., Ward, M. D. and Volfovsky, A. (2021) ‘Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas’, Sociological Methods and Research, 50(3), pp. 1259–1283.
- Beiser-McGrath, J. and Metternich, N. W. (2021) ‘Ethnic Coalitions and the Logic of Political Survival in Authoritarian Regimes’, Comparative Political Studies, (54(1), pp.144–178.
- Metternich, N. W. and Wucherpfennig, J. (2020) ‘Strategic Rebels: a Spatial Econometric Approach to Rebel Fighting Durations in Civil Wars’, International Interactions, 43(3), pp. 334-371.
- Leventoglu, B. and Metternich, N. W. (2018) ‘Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti-Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars’, American Journal of Political Science, 62(3), pp. 581–596.
- Beger, A., Hill Jr, D. W., Metternich, N. W, Minhas, S. and Ward, M. D. (2017) ‘Splitting It Up: the spduration Split-Population Duration Regression Package for Time-varying Covariates’, The R Journal, 9(2), pp. 474–486.
- Hegre, H., Metternich, N. W., Mokleiv, H. and Wucherpfennig, J. (2017) ‘Introduction: Forecasting in Peace Research’, Journal of Peace Research, 54(2), pp. 113–124.
- Metternich, N. W., Minhas, S. and Ward, M. D. (2016) ‘Firewall? Or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(6), pp. 1151–1173.
- Kibris, A. and Metternich, N. W. (2016) ‘The Flight of White-Collars: Civil Conflict, Availability of Medical Service Providers and Public Health’, Social Science and Medicine, 149, pp. 93–103.
- Chiba, D., Metternich, N. W. and Ward, M. D (2015) ‘Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework’, Political Science Research and Methods, 3(3), pp. 515–541.
- Gleditsch, K. S., Metternich, N. W. and Ruggeri, A (2014) ‘Data and Progress in Peace and Conflict Research’, Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), pp. 301–314.
- Metternich, N. W., Dorff, C., Gallup, M., Weschle, S. and Ward, M. D. (2013) ‘Anti-government Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Anti-government Behavior’, American Journal of Political Science, 57(4), pp. 892–911.
- Ward, M. D., Metternich, N. W., Dorff, C., Gallup, M., Hollenbach, F. M., Schultz, A. and Weschle, S. (2013) ‘Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction’, International Studies Review, 15(4), pp. 473–490.
- Wucherpfennig, J., Metternich, N. W., Skrede Gleditsch, K. and Cederman, L.E. (2012) ‘Ethnicity, the State and the Duration of Civil Wars’, World Politics, 64(1), pp. 79–115.
- Metternich, N. W. (2011) ‘Expecting Elections: Interventions, Ethnic Support and the Duration of Civil Wars’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55(6), pp. 909–937.