Practitioner-academic workshop on Geopolitics, geopolitical attitudes, and the Russia-Ukraine war

On February 11, 2025, Prof. Kristin M. Bakke organized a practitioner-academic conference on the theme “Geopolitics, geopolitical attitudes, and the Russia-Ukraine war”. 

It brought together 46 academics, civil servants, and practitioners working on (and in) Russia and its neighbouring states, including Ukraine. Participants came from universities (Colorado, ETH Zurich, King’s, LSE, Manchester, Oxford, Oslo, UCL, Virginia Tech, York), research institutes and think-tanks (Chatham House, Carnegie, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Peace Research Institute Oslo), conflict resolution organizations (Conciliation Resources, Humanitarian Dialogue, International Alert), the ESRC, the Armenian embassy, the European External Action Agency, and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.    

The motivation of the conference was to map and discuss the consequences of the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ensuing war, and the challenges ahead for security both in the immediate region and beyond. The war has had drastic consequences, first and foremost for ordinary people in Ukraine but also for the populations in other countries in Russia’s so-called ‘near abroad’, in Russia itself, and beyond. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have intensified debates about national security, independence, and the balance of power in the post-Soviet space. For Russia, the war has strained resources, tested alliances, and exposed limits to its influence over its neighbours. This is clear in the southern Caucasus region, for example, where there is evidence of democratic backsliding in Georgia, and the dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh has had important ramifications in Armenia. Are former-Soviet states re-evaluating their foreign policies and seeking to build relationships with a wider range of global partners? How is this complex and fluid geopolitical environment impacting the views of ordinary people in Russia’s neighbouring countries? 

The conference, which was held at Senate House, marked the end of Prof. Bakke’s joint NSF-ESRC grant on “Geopolitical attitudes among the population in Russia’s ‘near abroad” (with John O’Loughlin at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Gerard Toal at Virginia Tech) and the day began with the research team presenting some of their findings on shifts (2019-2024) in geopolitical attitudes in Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. It proceeded with panel discussions on the challenges facing Russia’s neighbours in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe, given both Russia’s changing ‘near abroad’ policies and a changing international geopolitical landscape. The conference discussions then honed in on the challenges facing Ukraine and the country’s future outlook, both from the perspective of significant survey-based research from wartime Ukraine and form the perspective of Ukraine’s allies, in particular the UK and the European Union. The day ended with a discussion around political developments in Russia (including (lack of) domestic opposition), Russia’s changing foreign policy in the region and beyond, and the challenges facing the EU and NATO.

The conference was funded by the ESRC grant and organized with great help from UCL Policy Lab. 
 

Agenda

9:15-9:30. Introduction and welcome (Kristin M. Bakke, UCL)

9:30-10:30. Changes in geopolitical attitudes between 2019 and 2024: Reporting from comparative public opinion surveys in Russia’s so-called ‘near abroad’ (chaired by Kristin M. Bakke, UCL)

• Aims of the project (John O’Loughlin, University of Colorado) 
• Key geopolitical shifts (Gerard Toal, Virginia Tech)
• Findings re: shifts in geopolitical attitudes (Kristin M. Bakke, UCL) 
• Modelling shifts in attitudes (Kit Rickard, ETH Zurich)

10:30-12:30. Changes and challenges facing some of Russia’s neighbours (chaired by Sherrill Stroschein, UCL)

• Russia’s changing ‘near abroad’ policies (Tom de Waal, Carnegie)
• Armenia and Azerbaijan: The persistence of territorial indeterminacy (Laurence Broers, Chatham House)
• Georgia: Turning towards Russia? (Natalie Sabanadze, Chatham House)
• Moldova: Identity and geopolitics (Ellie Knott, LSE)
• The future of the de facto states (Helge Blakkisrud, University of Oslo; Nina Caspersen, University of York)
• Implications of geopolitical shifts for peacebuilding in the Georgian-Abkhaz context (Rachel Clogg, Conciliation Resources)
• Implications of geopolitical shifts for peacebuilding and Armenia-Azerbaijan relations (Marina Nagai, International Alert) 

13:30-15:00. Changes and challenges facing Ukraine (chaired by Gerard Toal, Virginia Tech)

• Future challenges of Ukraine: a UK perspective (Ben Greenwood, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
• The politics of Ukraine at war and challenges for after the war ends (Olga Onuch, University of Manchester)
• Views on compromise and territorial concessions as the war goes on (Marnie Howlett, Oxford; John O’Loughlin, University of Colorado)
• War and democracy in Ukraine (Marianne Dahl, PRIO)
• Prospects for peace? (Sam Greene, King’s College)

15:30-17:00. Changes and challenges facing Russia—and implications for Europe (chaired by John O’Loughlin, University of Colorado)

• Protest and opposition in Russia (Katerina Tertytchnaya, Oxford)
• The threat constructions among Russian political elites (Kalina Zhekova, UCL)
• Russia-Georgia relations since 2014 (Julie Wilhelmsen, NUPI)
• What next for Russia’s foreign policy towards its neighbours? (Pavel Baev, PRIO)
• What now for the EU and NATO? (Marion Messmer, Chatham House)
• The challenges facing Europe (Audrone Perkauskiene, European External Action Service) 

Participants

Badri, Leena (Fellow, International Security Programme, Chatham House)
Baev, Pavel (Research Professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo)
Bakke, Kristin Marie (Professor in Political Science and International Relations, University College London)
Blakkisrud, Helge (Associate Professor in Russian Studies, University of Oslo)
Broers, Laurence (Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Chatham House)
Broyd, Laurence (Senior Research Analyst, Eastern Research Group, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Caspersen, Nina (Professor of Politics, University of York)
Clayton, Govinda (Mediation Support Manager, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue)
Clogg, Rachel (Co-Director, South Caucasus Programme, Conciliation Resources)
Cohen, Jonathan (Director, Conciliation Resources)
Corry-Fitton, Raya (Research Analyst, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Dahl, Marianne (Senior Researcher, Peace Research Institute Oslo)
Day, Mary (Deputy Team Head, International Development Team, Economic and Social Research Council)
De Waal, Tom (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe)
Fagelson, Judith (Research Analyst, Eastern Research Group, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Foreman, Anthony (Researcher, South Caucasus Programme, Conciliation Resources)
Giuashvili, Teona (Research Fellow, London School of Economics)
Greene, Sam (Professor in Russian Politics, King’s College London)
Greenwood, Ben (Head of Ukraine Department, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Howlett, Marnie (Departmental Lecturer in Russian and East European Politics, University of Oxford)
Khandamirian, Harry (Press Attaché, Embassy of Armenia to the UK)
Knott, Ellie (Assistant Professor in Qualitative Methods, London School of Economics)
Kos, Andras (Counsellor, Security and Defence, Delegation of the European Union to the UK)
Melkonyan, Yuri (Counsellor, Embassy of Armenia to the UK)
Messmer, Marion (Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme, Chatham House)
Nagai, Marina (Europe Director, International Alert)
Nice, Alex (Research Analyst, Eastern Research Group, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Nurton, Sarah (Research Analyst, Eastern Research Group, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
O’Loughlin, John (Professor in Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder)
Onuch, Olga (Professor in Comparative and Ukrainian Politics, University of Manchester)
Perkauskiene, Audrone (Director for Eastern Europe and Russia, Deputy Managing Director of the European External Action Service)
Pugsley, Sophia (Eurasia Adviser, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue)
Rickard, Kit (Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich)
Rosenthal, Eva (Projects Manager, Conciliation Resources)
Rouillon, Georges (Senior Policy Advisor, Ukraine Team, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Sabanadze, Natalie (Senior Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House)
Sargsyan, Hayk (First Secretary, Embassy of Armenia to the UK)
Shliakov, Yuri (PhD Student in Political Science, University College London)
Stables, Harry (Conflict Prevention Adviser at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Stroschein, Sherrill (Reader in Politics, University College London)
Tertytchnaya, Katerina (Associate Professor in Comparative Politics, University of Oxford)
Toal, Gerard (Professor of Government and International Affairs, Virginia Tech)
Tobias, Jennifer (Research Analyst, Eastern Research Group, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
Vassallo, Julian (Team Leader EU-UK Foreign Policy Coordination, European External Action Service)
Wilhelmsen, Julie (Research Professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs)
Zhekova, Kalina (Associate Professor (Teaching) in Political Science, University College London)