New polling from the UCL Policy Lab shows that Labour lead Reform by 5 points in Makerfield

Toplines:

• Labour leads Reform UK by 5 points in a tight Makerfield race, 45 per cent to 40 per cent.
• Restore Britain could win 8 per cent of the vote in Makerfield.
• Keir Starmer was deeply unpopular in Makerfield with a net favourability rating of -48. Meanwhile Burnham’s net favourability rating is +7.
• Makerfield residents narrowly say they would vote to rejoin the EU, by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.
• Undecided voters could swing the election: 13 per cent of those who plan to vote in next week’s election still don’t know how they plan to vote.

Marc Stears, Director at UCL Policy Lab, said: “This election is being shaped by voters desire to find politicians who respect them and attend to their concerns. Both Burnham and Kenyon seek to embody this in different ways. Our poll shows a close race but what looks like it could pull Burnham over the line is that he’s seen as different to other politicians and seen as able to restore that respect. These are lessons whoever wants to lead country must heed rather than immediately dive back into SW1 business as usual.”

Close race with Labour 5-points ahead

One week out from the by-election, More in Common and UCL Policy Lab's constituency poll of Makerfield finds a tight race, with Labour leading Reform UK by 5 points. Restore Britain, meanwhile, could be set to split the right in Makerfield, winning 8 per cent of the vote. The other parties are barely on the scene: the Green Party is on 3 per cent, the Conservatives on just 2 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 1 per cent.

Full results (with changes from 2024 General Election):

• Labour 45 (nc)
• Reform UK 40 (+8)
• Restore Britain 8 (new party)
• Green 3 (-1)
• Conservative 2 (-9)
• Liberal Democrats 1 (-6)

Starmer is deeply unpopular in Makerfield, while nearly half of residents hold a positive view of Burnham.

Only 13 per cent of Makerfield residents have a favourable view of Keir Starmer, against 61 per cent who have an unfavourable view (net favourability: -48).

Both Farage and Kenyon are unpopular in Makerfield: 31 per cent have a favourable view of Nigel Farage, against 49 per cent unfavourable (net favourability: -19) 25 per cent have a favourable view of Robert Kenyon, against 41 per cent unfavourable (net favourability: -16).

Andy Burnham is the only figure with a positive favourability rating: 44 per cent have a favourable view of Andy Burnham, against 36 per cent unfavourable (net favourability: +7)

Makerfield would narrowly vote to rejoin the EU

If there were a referendum on EU membership, rejoin could win with 55 per cent of the vote.

Asked how they would vote if there were a referendum on rejoining the EU, 45 per cent of Makerfield residents say they would vote to rejoin, against 38 per cent who would vote to stay outside (12 per cent don't know, 5 per cent wouldn't vote). Looking only at those who would be likely to vote, rejoin leads by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

Makerfield residents say progress on the cost of living, immigration and NHS would show that politicians respect them

Cost of living the top “respect” issue in Makerfield: Asked which policy issues would be most important for a politician to address to show that they respect people like them, 43 per cent of Makerfield residents cite the cost of living/economy.

Immigration/asylum seekers (35 per cent) and the NHS/healthcare (29 per cent) follow as the next most commonly cited issues on which politicians would need to act to demonstrate respect.

Crime and public safety, and levels of taxation are also important issues to Makerfield residents, with 16 per cent selecting each as issues that would show respect.

Methodology

More in Common conducted a poll of 515 adults living in the Makerfield constituency, conducted between 28 May and 12 June 2026 by both telephone and online interviews. Respondents have been weighted according to age, sex, education level, ethnicity and 2024 General Election vote. More in Common is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Read more coverage in The Times.