Beyond the by election: following Makerfield, we look at the national picture

Beyond the by-election: Reflections on UK politics. 

We've spent recent weeks in conversation with progressive voters across the country: in Basingstoke, Bath, Bolton, Bracknell, Bury, Doncaster, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Rother Valley and Scunthorpe. 

These in depth focus groups from across the country, run by former Bill Clinton and Tony Blair strategist, Stan Greenberg, for the UCL Policy Lab and Small Axe, reveal strong support for a bolder agenda for transformative change than that associated with Sir Keir Starmer. Progressive-leaning voters, in particular, report wishing to see immediate action on the cost of living which then builds out to a challenge to the prevailing economic and political system. Andy Burnham’s case for the leadership of the Labour Party appears to rest in his ability to meet this demand for change.

Key findings

• Current government. Voters see problems stacking up with no prospect of being fixed. They report living in a lost, directionless country that is divided and angry;
• Voters want a system change. Given a choice between a leader focusing exclusively on the cost of living, vs. one looking also to achieve fundamental change to the economic and political system, a two-to-one majority of these voters choose system change. They do believe the system is broken, and think fixing those fundamentals will ease the other challenges the country faces, including cost of living;
• Labour leadership and Makerfield. Voters widely view the by-election as a contest for the Labour leadership. Outside of Manchester, people have little knowledge of Andy Burnham’s current offer to the country; 
• The Reform challenge. Progressive-leaning voters report finding Reform’s “negativity” divisive, but even they recognise that Nigel Farage’s party has a strong apparel to local/normal and so-called “alarm-clock” Britain;
• Trump and international affairs. Donald Trump remains a lightning rod for a divided electorate. Progressive-leaning voters see him as almost entirely negative, and wish for a stronger anti-Trump response from the UK government.

In detail

Speaking to voters we found an electorate that remains frustrated by the Labour government's unwillingness to deliver at the pace of change required. Anger towards Keir Starmer and his perceived failure to deliver on his promise to ‘end stick-plaster politics’ is deep and widespread across all the focus groups.

Yet the groups also found that Andy Burnham does not yet have a fully defined profile with the electorate; in the coming weeks, he will need to set out a clear plan and vision to transform Britain. His appeal, and his possible path to bring back Labour voters, appears to be dependent on a plan for immediate cost-of-living measures twinned with a commitment to end business as usual in politics and the economy. This includes political reform and commitments to changing the economic model to better support ordinary people. The groups seemed to reveal that his appeal was one rooted in place, not party, and a willingness to embody voters’ frustrations with the old Westminster way of doing things.

Speaking at the launch of the focus groups report, the UCL Policy Lab’s Director, Marc Stears said:

“Voters want two things, they want to see a Prime Minister tackle the immediate cost of living crisis and to tackle the long-term challenges with British politics and economy.  These may seem separate, but in truth, they are woven together. Voters know that Britain is in a crisis, which won’t easily be solved, they know not everything can be fixed at once – but they want to see a government which is willing to show they get it on cost of living and take action on what they see as a broken political and economic system. In many ways, they have made clear this demand for change at every opportunity since 2016. Whoever seizes on this demand for change could well define British politics for many years to come.”

About the groups 

Stan Greenberg and colleagues conducted six focus groups across England in the second week of June. Participants were likely voters (8-10 likely to vote on a 0–10 scale) and would currently vote for, or seriously consider voting for, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or the Green Party. In addition to standard demographic splits (single-gender; defined age and SEG ranges), the groups were split across so-called “Red Wall” and ”Blue Wall” seats.

Beyond the by-election: Reflections on UK politics.