What does the Russia-Ukraine war mean for post-Soviet nations?

In February 2025, 46 global experts from academia, civil service, and practitioners gathered at Senate House for a UCL-hosted conference on the theme "Geopolitics, Geopolitical Attitudes, and the Russia-Ukraine War."

The event marked the conclusion of Professor Kristin M. Bakke's joint NSF-ESRC grant on "Geopolitical Attitudes Among the Population in Russia's 'Near Abroad'”, a collaboration with John O'Loughlin from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Gerard Toal from Virginia Tech, Bakke and her team presented critical findings on shifts in geopolitical attitudes from 2019 to 2024 in countries such as Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.

Funded by the ESRC, the conference brought together participants from UCL (Iiuri Shliakov, Sherrill Stroschein and Kalina Zhekova) and several other universities both in the UK and abroad, research institutes and think-tanks including Chatham House and Carnegie, conflict resolution organizations (Conciliation Resources, Humanitarian Dialogue, International Alert), international embassies, the European External Action Agency, and the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Speaking following the conference,  Dr Manuel Vogt, the UCL Policy Lab theme lead for Promoting Democracy and Peace, said “I am very pleased that the Policy Lab was able to bring together this distinguished group of scholars and practitioners to discuss key issues surrounding this conflict in a moment that seems as crucial as never before since its beginning in February 2022.”

Crucial to discussions were the consequences of the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ensuing war, and the security challenges faced in the immediate region and beyond. The conference came at a pivotal moment in the war, following President Trump’s inauguration.

Discussions honed on the challenges facing Ukraine’s future, exploring significant survey-based research from wartime Ukraine, as well as insights from the perspective of Ukraine’s allies, in particular the UK and the European Union. With the ongoing situation in Ukraine framing the final session of the day, discussions included political developments and the lack of domestic opposition in Russia, and the challenges facing the EU and NATO.

In addition to examining the effects of the war on Ukraine, the conference explored the challenges facing both states and de facto in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe. For Russia, the war has strained resources, tested alliances, and exposed limits to its influence over its neighbours. Its actions in Ukraine have intensified debates about national security, independence, and the balance of power in the post-Soviet space.

The impacts of these evolving geopolitical environment remain to be seen, but the conference discussions explored questions such as: Are former Soviet states re-evaluating their foreign policies and seeking to build relationships with a wider range of global partners? How is this complex and fluid geopolitical environment impacting the views of ordinary people in Russia’s neighbouring countries?

The conference was run as part of the Promoting Democracy and Peace theme at the UCL Policy Lab.