The Centre's Last Chance? Lessons from the 2025 German Elections 

The Centre's Last Chance? Lessons from the 2025 German Elections read in full. 

The German Social Democrats (SPD) sank to their worst defeat in over a century in January's Federal Election. The result marked a stark collapse from the outgoing SPD Chancellor's triumph in 2021.

A new report The Centre's Last Chance? Lessons from the 2025 German Elections from UCL Policy Lab and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) explores the results and asks what lessons can be learned for other centre-left and centre-right parties in Europe, including Britain.

The report notes that a failure to invest in public services at home and ongoing challenges abroad left Olaf Scholz's party losing votes to both the left and right. With the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) bringing in new voters, the SPD lost voters to both the centre-right CDU and a resurgent leftist party in Die Linke.

Speaking ahead of the report's launch, UCL Policy Lab Director Marc Stears set out the challenges and lessons for established European politics.

"As we saw overnight with the changes to the much-discussed German debt brake, there is now recognition by the incoming centre-right German government that there is a need to invest and tackle deep social and economic challenges."

“The fact that it is a German conservative leader who has taken such a momentous decision underlines the historic times in which we live, with parties of the centre having to respond to security threats from abroad and growing public anger at failing public services at home,” Stears said.

Although a more substantial reform of the debt brake itself would only take place after a special commission, the change marks a major shift for post-reunification Germany.

A co-author of the report and Director of FES UK, Michèle Auga, underlined the historical nature of the changes and the tacit recognition of the need for reform in light of the SPD's failure to turn around Germany's fortunes.

“The Social Democrats face a twofold challenge in response to their election defeat: they must engage in a balancing act between government responsibilities in a coalition with the CDU/CSU and necessary programmatic renewal. The overnight news of possible changes to the much-discussed German debt brake and the SPD’s seemingly first win in the negotiations should not distract from the need for major changes to the SPD’s political strategy.”

The report also noted the return of the far-left Die Linke party, which exceeded expectations to gain 8.8% of total votes. This late surge was partly driven by Die Linke’s clear position on migration, as Dr. Roland Kappe (Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, UCL) set out in his contribution to the report ‘Comeback on the Left: Die Linke in the 2025 German Election’.

“The debates about asylum and migration and the backlash against the decision of Friedrich Merz and his CDU to pass a motion with the support of the AfD during the campaign allowed Die Linke to mobilise voters on the left. Helped by a successful social media campaign, the party was the most popular choice among voters under 25, and especially among young women.”

The German debt brake, which has been the foundation of German policymaking for the last three decades, was put aside amid the rise of the far-right and the seeming weakening of American security guarantees.

The report also addressed the growing challenges posed by President Donald Trump's seeming lack of commitment to European security. In her contribution, Dr. Uta Staiger, Director of the UCL European Institute, set out why Merz and Starmer may come to depend on European cooperation over Trumpian disruption.

“President Trump’s momentous geopolitical shifts in his first weeks in power have sent shockwaves through the emerging German government. Merz’ swift call for European independence from the US not only breaks with long-standing Christian Democratic positions on the transatlantic partnership but signals a wider shift toward European strategic autonomy – with significant opportunities as well as hard choices for the UK.”

The report included contributions from Professor Albert Weale and Marc Saxer,  was launched to a packed room of MPs, journalists, and researchers in Parliament on Wednesday, March 5. And set out the challenges ahead for Germany and the lessons for other governments, including the UK, in navigating the demands for real change.

Earlier in the week, UCL Policy Lab launched another new report, Change Still Pending, with More in Common, which showed that Downing Street needs to strike a careful balance between offering far-reaching change on the one hand and avoiding the chaos and unpredictability widely associated with Donald Trump on the other.

As the report sets out, this will require decisions on the need for real improvements to ordinary people’s lives, improved public services, and economic opportunities across Britain.

As Donald Trump continues to send shockwaves through geopolitics and global markets, both Germany’s and the UK’s response will be crucial for European success. How they work together and build stronger relations on trade and security could become essential to the long-term success of both governments. 

The Centre's Last Chance? Lessons from the 2025 German Elections read in full.