The British public want radicalism but not recklessness, new data shows

Change Still Pending, UCL Policy Lab and More in Common. 

A new report Change Still Pending from the UCL Policy Lab and More in Common suggests that Downing Street needs to strike a careful balance between offering far-reaching change, on the one hand, and avoiding the chaos and unpredictability widely associated with Donald Trump, on the other.

While there is enthusiasm for change and an anxiety that the government are not delivering enough, there is also deep scepticism about Trump’s style of politics and little enthusiasm for a political style that “moves fast and breaks things”. In the poll, 59% of the public say that government should change things carefully even if that means going slower. Only 18% think government should move fast even if it is risky, in the manner associated with Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

There is also widespread scepticism in the British electorate about efforts significantly to move British politics to policy positions associated with the populist right, especially among those voters who supported Labour in the 2024 general election.

41% of 2024 Labour voters say that “preventing safe routes” for refugees would be a deal breaker for them, and would stop them voting for Labour next time. 44% say the same about slowing down on action on climate change.

The report also had good news for the Prime Minister, with the public approving of the Prime Minister's response to Trump and Zelenskyy's falling out in the White House. With his leadership on the war in Ukraine, Starmer’s personal approval ratings have risen significantly from -39 to -28. Underlining a desire from voters to see an approach on Ukraine which brings together European allies, over the divisions of the Trump White House.  

The desire for change

The evidence of the desire for change is clear and profound. Britons are united in a desire for widespread change.

61% believe the immigration system needs “radical change”; 61% say the same of the NHS; and 55% say it of the economy as a whole.

Moreover, the public are impatient with the current direction. Only 15% of people think the government has things under control. Labour’s record so far for political leadership is blamed for not getting things done: 42% of the public say it is the single most important factor in the slow pace of change. The government has also taken a significant hit in key areas. Although Labour still has significant advantage on “looking after people in need” and “fixing the NHS”, Reform has an advantage when the public are asked which party is most likely to “change the country”: 36% to Labour’s 29%.

These figures connect to the evaluations of the leaders themselves. 55% of respondents say that Starmer is “out of touch”, compared to Farage’s 34%. Only 19% of people think Starmer “cares about people like me”, compared to 29% for Farage.

Similarly, 55% think Farage is “bold”, compared to just 23% for Starmer.

Labour’s fragile coalition

These tendencies are even more pronounced among those voters who supported Labour at the last general election. The poll clearly suggests that close to a half of Labour voters at the last election are unpersuaded by the desirability of moving closer to the platform of Nigel Farage and Reform UK. These concerns are further exacerbated by concern about some of the policy shifts the government may be considering to attract voters tempted by Reform.

As previously mentioned,41% of 2024 Labour voters say that “preventing safe routes” for would stop them from voting for Labour in future elections. 44% say the same about slowing down on action on climate change, whilst 43% say the same about efforts to stop diversity and inclusion programmes.

Starmer's approach to Trump  

These positions are further reflected in evaluations of the leaders themselves.

61% of respondents say that Starmer should seek to differentiate himself from Donald Trump, compared to 27% who suggest he should seek to emulate the American President. Only Reform voters wish he was more like Trump.

Challenges of populism

Uniquely among British political parties, Reform supporters are very clearly opposed to the existing political order. 53% of its supporters think our system of government should be “scrapped so we can start from scratch”.

This view, however, is not shared by the public as a whole. Instead, the public prefers a measured and incremental approach to change, a preference shared by supporters of each party apart from Reform.

Only 16% of the public blame excessive rules and regulations for the slow pace of change. In contrast, 51% think rules and regulations are important to getting things done.

Similarly, the vast majority of Britons do not blame the behaviour of big business for the state of the country, and wish for government to support business rather than hold it to account.

Read the report in full.